U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00250365 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Arthur, NE

NOAA weather station Arthur (USC00250365), Nebraska · elevation 3660 ft (1116 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 22only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season144 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Arthur, NESpring: a frost after April 29 in 9 years out of 10, after May 9 in half of the years, after May 22 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 20 in 1 year out of 10, before October 3 in half of the years, before October 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 144 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 9First frost ~Oct 3Frost season at Arthur, NESpring: a frost after April 29 in 9 years out of 10, after May 9 in half of the years, after May 22 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 20 in 1 year out of 10, before October 3 in half of the years, before October 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 144 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 9First frost ~Oct 3
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 22September 20
50% (typical)May 9October 3
90% (likely)April 29October 16
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
144 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 30
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 12

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 11 (2 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 4 (1 day later). Frost-free season 145 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Arthur: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 22, 20% May 17, 30% May 15, 40% May 12, 50% May 9, 60% May 7, 70% May 4, 80% May 2, 90% April 29. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 12, 2022 May 22, 2023 May 2, 2024 May 4, 2025 May 3, 2026 May 2.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 22May 9Apr 292021: May 122022: May 222023: May 22024: May 42025: May 32026: May 2Fall at Arthur: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 20, 20% September 25, 30% September 28, 40% October 1, 50% October 3, 60% October 5, 70% October 8, 80% October 11, 90% October 16. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 14, 2022 October 17, 2023 October 7, 2024 October 1, 2025 October 19.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Sep 20Oct 3Oct 162021: October 142022: October 172023: October 72024: October 12025: October 19
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 12October 14
2022May 22October 17
2023May 2October 7
2024May 4October 1
2025May 3October 19
2026May 2season not over yet

What these dates mean

There are 144 days between the 32°F 50% dates in Arthur, and they mark the central span of the growing season. The median light-frost dates are May 9 in spring and October 3 in fall; each represents an even chance of a frost occurring later (spring) or earlier (fall). Gardeners can use these points to gauge when temperatures are most likely to stay above the light-frost threshold.

The cautious date for setting out tender crops in spring is May 22, when only a 10 % chance of a later light frost remains, while April 29 carries a 90 % chance and is a gamble. In fall, the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is September 20, with a 10 % chance of an earlier light frost; October 16 has a 90 % chance and is risky. The hard-frost median dates are April 30 and October 12, and a hard frost at 28°F can injure plants that would survive a 32°F light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 22" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 20" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Arthur, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — Kingsley Dam, NE — 25 mi; 2 — Ogallala, NE — 31 mi; 3 — Oshkosh, NE — 36 mi; 4 — Hershey, NE — 49 mi; 5 — Madrid, NE — 50 mi.CO25 mi · 40 km1. Kingsley Dam, NE — 25 mi12. Ogallala, NE — 31 mi23. Oshkosh, NE — 36 mi34. Hershey, NE — 49 mi45. Madrid, NE — 50 mi5
  1. Kingsley Dam, NE 25 mi (40 km)
  2. Ogallala, NE 31 mi (49 km)
  3. Oshkosh, NE 36 mi (58 km)
  4. Hershey, NE 49 mi (79 km)
  5. Madrid, NE 50 mi (81 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 41.5697, -101.6917.