U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00250420 · Nebraska

Frost Dates for Atkinson, NE

NOAA weather station Atkinson 3 SW (USC00250420), Nebraska · elevation 2128 ft (649 m) · hardiness zone 5a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 18only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season152 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Atkinson, NESpring: a frost after April 20 in 9 years out of 10, after May 4 in half of the years, after May 18 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 22 in 1 year out of 10, before October 4 in half of the years, before October 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 152 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 4First frost ~Oct 4Frost season at Atkinson, NESpring: a frost after April 20 in 9 years out of 10, after May 4 in half of the years, after May 18 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 22 in 1 year out of 10, before October 4 in half of the years, before October 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 152 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 4First frost ~Oct 4
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 18September 22
50% (typical)May 4October 4
90% (likely)April 20October 16
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
152 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 24
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 13

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 4 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 6 (2 days later). Frost-free season 156 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Atkinson: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 18, 20% May 12, 30% May 9, 40% May 7, 50% May 4, 60% May 2, 70% April 30, 80% April 25, 90% April 20. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 12, 2022 May 22, 2023 May 2, 2024 April 22, 2025 April 22, 2026 May 20.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 18May 4Apr 202021: May 122022: May 222023: May 22024: April 222025: April 222026: May 20Fall at Atkinson: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 22, 20% September 27, 30% September 29, 40% October 1, 50% October 4, 60% October 6, 70% October 9, 80% October 13, 90% October 16. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 15, 2022 October 7, 2023 October 7, 2024 October 4, 2025 October 19.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Sep 22Oct 4Oct 162021: October 152022: October 72023: October 72024: October 42025: October 19
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 12October 15
2022May 22October 7
2023May 2October 7
2024April 22October 4
2025April 22October 19
2026May 20season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 18 is the cautious spring date for tender crops in Atkinson, allowing a gardener to set them out with only a 10% chance that a light frost will come later. Planting before the earlier April 20 date carries a 90% chance of a frost and is a gamble. In the fall, September 22 is the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops, with only a 10% chance that a light frost has already arrived; waiting until the later October 16 date would be a gamble.

The 50% dates—May 4 in spring and October 4 in fall—mark the median point where a light frost is equally likely to occur later or earlier, helping a gardener gauge the middle of the risk window. The hard-frost 50% dates are April 24 and October 13; a hard frost at 28 °F can cause far more severe damage than a light frost at 32 °F, so its timing is especially important.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 18" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 22" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Atkinson, NENumbered nearest stations: 1 — Newport, NE — 17 mi; 2 — O'Neill, NE — 19 mi; 3 — Butte, NE — 29 mi; 4 — Lynch, NE — 36 mi; 5 — Ewing, NE — 39 mi.NESD25 mi · 40 km1. Newport, NE — 17 mi12. O'Neill, NE — 19 mi23. Butte, NE — 29 mi34. Lynch, NE — 36 mi45. Ewing, NE — 39 mi5
  1. Newport, NE 17 mi (27 km)
  2. O'Neill, NE 19 mi (31 km)
  3. Butte, NE 29 mi (47 km)
  4. Lynch, NE 36 mi (58 km)
  5. Ewing, NE 39 mi (63 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.5136, -99.0303.