U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00300443 · New York

Frost Dates for Batavia, NY

NOAA weather station Batavia (USC00300443), New York · elevation 913 ft (278 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 18only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season165 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Batavia, NYSpring: a frost after April 21 in 9 years out of 10, after May 3 in half of the years, after May 18 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 16 in half of the years, before October 29 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 165 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 3First frost ~Oct 16Frost season at Batavia, NYSpring: a frost after April 21 in 9 years out of 10, after May 3 in half of the years, after May 18 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 16 in half of the years, before October 29 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 165 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 3First frost ~Oct 16
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 18October 1
50% (typical)May 3October 16
90% (likely)April 21October 29
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
165 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 23
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 29

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 1 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 21 (5 days later). Frost-free season 172 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Batavia: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 18, 20% May 12, 30% May 8, 40% May 5, 50% May 3, 60% April 30, 70% April 28, 80% April 24, 90% April 21. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 1, 2022 April 30, 2023 May 18, 2024 April 26, 2025 April 17, 2026 May 12.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 18May 3Apr 212021: May 12022: April 302023: May 182024: April 262025: April 172026: May 12Fall at Batavia: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 1, 20% October 6, 30% October 9, 40% October 13, 50% October 16, 60% October 19, 70% October 22, 80% October 25, 90% October 29. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3, 2022 October 3, 2023 October 23, 2024 October 17, 2025 October 17.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 1Oct 16Oct 292021: November 32022: October 32023: October 232024: October 172025: October 17
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 1November 3
2022April 30October 3
2023May 18October 23
2024April 26October 17
2025April 17October 17
2026May 12season not over yet

What these dates mean

Planting tender crops on April 21 in Batavia carries a 90% chance of a light frost, a clear gamble for gardeners.

The 50% dates—May 3 for spring and October 16 for fall—represent the point at which a light frost is equally likely to occur later (spring) or earlier (fall). A cautious planting schedule uses the May 18 date, when only a 10% chance of a light frost remains, and the October 1 date, which also carries a 10% chance of a frost arriving earlier. Over the 30-year record, the interval between the two 32 °F 50% dates spans 165 days.

A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F because the lower temperature intensifies tissue injury.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 18" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 1" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Batavia, NYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Albion, NY — 16 mi; 2 — Avon, NY — 22 mi; 3 — Warsaw, NY — 24 mi; 4 — Rochester, NY — 26 mi; 5 — Wales, NY — 29 mi.NY25 mi · 40 km1. Albion, NY — 16 mi12. Avon, NY — 22 mi23. Warsaw, NY — 24 mi34. Rochester, NY — 26 mi45. Wales, NY — 29 mi5
  1. Albion, NY 16 mi (26 km)
  2. Avon, NY 22 mi (36 km)
  3. Warsaw, NY 24 mi (38 km)
  4. Rochester, NY 26 mi (41 km)
  5. Wales, NY 29 mi (47 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 43.0297, -78.1683.