U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00093814 · Kentucky

Frost Dates near Burlington, KY

NOAA weather station Cincinnati Northern Ky Airport (USW00093814), Kentucky · elevation 869 ft (265 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

Burlington is the nearest town to the station (3.0 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 7only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season188 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Burlington, KYSpring: a frost after April 3 in 9 years out of 10, after April 18 in half of the years, after May 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 12 in 1 year out of 10, before October 25 in half of the years, before November 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 188 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 18First frost ~Oct 25Frost season near Burlington, KYSpring: a frost after April 3 in 9 years out of 10, after April 18 in half of the years, after May 7 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 12 in 1 year out of 10, before October 25 in half of the years, before November 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 188 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 18First frost ~Oct 25
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 7October 12
50% (typical)April 18October 25
90% (likely)April 3November 5
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
188 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 5
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 3

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 17 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 27 (2 days later). Frost-free season 192 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Burlington: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 7, 20% April 30, 30% April 26, 40% April 22, 50% April 18, 60% April 15, 70% April 12, 80% April 8, 90% April 3. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 10, 2023 April 24, 2024 April 22, 2025 April 12, 2026 March 28.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 7Apr 18Apr 32021: April 232022: April 102023: April 242024: April 222025: April 122026: March 28Fall near Burlington: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 12, 20% October 17, 30% October 20, 40% October 23, 50% October 25, 60% October 28, 70% October 30, 80% November 1, 90% November 5. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 2, 2022 October 20, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 21, 2025 October 24.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 12Oct 25Nov 52021: November 22022: October 202023: October 312024: November 212025: October 24
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 2
2022April 10October 20
2023April 24October 31
2024April 22November 21
2025April 12October 24
2026March 28season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 12 is the cautious fall date to finish harvesting tender crops in the Burlington area, Kentucky, because there is only a 10% chance a light frost has arrived earlier. The spring cautious date for setting out tender crops is May 7, when the chance of a light frost later than that day is also 10%, while planting on April 3 carries a 90% chance of a frost and is a gamble.

The 50% dates mark even odds for a light frost: April 18 is the spring 50% date with a 50% chance of a frost later than that day, and October 25 is the fall 50% date with a 50% chance of a frost earlier than that day. The median hard-frost dates are April 5 in spring and November 3 in fall, indicating when a 28°F frost is equally likely to have occurred.

A hard frost at 28°F can injure or kill plants more severely than a light frost at 32°F, so its timing matters beyond the light-frost probabilities.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 7" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 12" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Burlington, KYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Cheviot, OH — 8 mi; 2 — near Cincinnati, OH — 14 mi; 3 — Fairfield, OH — 22 mi; 4 — Franklin, OH — 40 mi; 5 — Eaton, OH — 48 mi.OHINKY25 mi · 40 km1. Cheviot, OH — 8 mi12. near Cincinnati, OH — 14 mi23. Fairfield, OH — 22 mi34. Franklin, OH — 40 mi45. Eaton, OH — 48 mi5
  1. Cheviot, OH 8 mi (13 km)
  2. near Cincinnati, OH 14 mi (23 km)
  3. Fairfield, OH 22 mi (35 km)
  4. Franklin, OH 40 mi (64 km)
  5. Eaton, OH 48 mi (77 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 39.0431, -84.6717.