U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00231275 · Missouri

Frost Dates near Canton, MO

NOAA weather station Canton Lock and Dam 20 (USC00231275), Missouri · elevation 490 ft (149 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

Canton is the nearest town to the station (1.0 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 29only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season194 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Canton, MOSpring: a frost after March 29 in 9 years out of 10, after April 11 in half of the years, after April 29 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 10 in 1 year out of 10, before October 23 in half of the years, before November 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 194 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 11First frost ~Oct 23Frost season near Canton, MOSpring: a frost after March 29 in 9 years out of 10, after April 11 in half of the years, after April 29 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 10 in 1 year out of 10, before October 23 in half of the years, before November 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 194 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 11First frost ~Oct 23
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 29October 10
50% (typical)April 11October 23
90% (likely)March 29November 4
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
194 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 2
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 12 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 24 (1 day later). Frost-free season 196 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Canton: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 29, 20% April 22, 30% April 18, 40% April 15, 50% April 11, 60% April 9, 70% April 6, 80% April 2, 90% March 29. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 27, 2023 April 24, 2024 April 6, 2025 April 9, 2026 March 29.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 29Apr 11Mar 292021: April 232022: April 272023: April 242024: April 62025: April 92026: March 29Fall near Canton: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 10, 20% October 14, 30% October 18, 40% October 21, 50% October 23, 60% October 25, 70% October 27, 80% October 30, 90% November 4. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 2, 2022 October 9, 2023 October 30, 2024 October 16, 2025 November 2.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 10Oct 23Nov 42021: November 22022: October 92023: October 302024: October 162025: November 2
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 2
2022April 27October 9
2023April 24October 30
2024April 6October 16
2025April 9November 2
2026March 29season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on March 29 in the Canton area is a gamble; there is a 90 % chance that a light frost will occur later than that date. In contrast, April 29 is the cautious light-frost date, offering only a 10 % chance of frost later, making it the preferred day for planting delicate varieties.

The 50% date in spring is April 11, which carries a 50 % chance of a light frost later than this date, and the 50% date in fall is October 23, which carries a 50 % chance of a light frost earlier than this date. For a cautious schedule, October 10 is the fall light-frost date with a 10 % chance of frost earlier, marking the day to finish harvesting tender crops. A hard frost at 28 °F can cause far more severe damage to plants than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 29" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 10" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Canton, MONumbered nearest stations: 1 — Quincy Dam 21, IL — 17 mi; 2 — near Keokuk, IA — 19 mi; 3 — Quincy, IL — 22 mi; 4 — Steffenville, MO — 23 mi; 5 — Bentley, IL — 25 mi.ILMOIA25 mi · 40 km1. Quincy Dam 21, IL — 17 mi12. near Keokuk, IA — 19 mi23. Quincy, IL — 22 mi34. Steffenville, MO — 23 mi45. Bentley, IL — 25 mi5
  1. Quincy Dam 21, IL 17 mi (28 km)
  2. near Keokuk, IA 19 mi (31 km)
  3. Quincy, IL 22 mi (36 km)
  4. Steffenville, MO 23 mi (37 km)
  5. Bentley, IL 25 mi (41 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 40.1439, -91.5158.