U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00291469 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Carlsbad, NM

NOAA weather station Carlsbad (USC00291469), New Mexico · elevation 3120 ft (951 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 5only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season238 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Carlsbad, NMSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 17 in half of the years, after April 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 29 in 1 year out of 10, before November 12 in half of the years, before November 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 238 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 17First frost ~Nov 12Frost season at Carlsbad, NMSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 17 in half of the years, after April 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 29 in 1 year out of 10, before November 12 in half of the years, before November 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 238 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 17First frost ~Nov 12
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 5October 29
50% (typical)March 17November 12
90% (likely)February 28November 26
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
238 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 2
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 23

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 19 (2 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 10 (2 days earlier). Frost-free season 235 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Carlsbad: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 5, 20% April 1, 30% March 27, 40% March 22, 50% March 17, 60% March 13, 70% March 10, 80% March 6, 90% February 28.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 5Mar 17Feb 28Fall at Carlsbad: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 29, 20% November 3, 30% November 6, 40% November 9, 50% November 12, 60% November 14, 70% November 17, 80% November 21, 90% November 26.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 29Nov 12Nov 26
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

The cautious fall date for finishing the harvest in Carlsbad is October 29, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has already arrived. In the spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is April 5, which carries a 10 % chance of a light frost later than that day; the earlier date of February 28 carries a 90 % chance and is a gamble.

The 50 % light-frost dates are March 17 in spring and November 12 in fall; each marks an even-odds point for a frost to occur later (spring) or earlier (fall). The 50 % hard-frost dates are March 2 and November 23, providing the median timing for a 28 °F frost. Together these dates help a gardener gauge the range of risk across the 26-year record.

A hard frost at 28 °F can damage tender plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 5" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 29" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Carlsbad, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM — 2 mi; 2 — Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NM — 25 mi; 3 — Artesia, NM — 30 mi; 4 — near Roswell, NM — 68 mi; 5 — near Wink, TX — 71 mi.TX50 mi · 80 km1. Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM — 2 mi12. Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NM — 25 mi23. Artesia, NM — 30 mi34. near Roswell, NM — 68 mi45. near Wink, TX — 71 mi5
  1. Carlsbad (Cavern City Airport), NM 2 mi (4 km)
  2. Waste Isolt'n Pilot Plant, NM 25 mi (40 km)
  3. Artesia, NM 30 mi (48 km)
  4. near Roswell, NM 68 mi (110 km)
  5. near Wink, TX 71 mi (115 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 32.3478, -104.2225.