U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00401480 · Tennessee

Frost Dates for Carthage, TN

NOAA weather station Carthage (USC00401480), Tennessee · elevation 515 ft (157 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 27only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season201 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Carthage, TNSpring: a frost after March 26 in 9 years out of 10, after April 10 in half of the years, after April 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 17 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 201 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 10First frost ~Oct 29Frost season at Carthage, TNSpring: a frost after March 26 in 9 years out of 10, after April 10 in half of the years, after April 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 17 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 201 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 10First frost ~Oct 29
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 27October 17
50% (typical)April 10October 29
90% (likely)March 26November 11
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
201 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 30
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 8

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 10 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 31 (2 days later). Frost-free season 204 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Carthage: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 27, 20% April 21, 30% April 17, 40% April 13, 50% April 10, 60% April 7, 70% April 4, 80% March 31, 90% March 26. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2023 May 4, 2024 April 6, 2025 April 9, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 27Apr 10Mar 262021: April 222023: May 42024: April 62025: April 92026: March 18Fall at Carthage: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 17, 20% October 22, 30% October 24, 40% October 27, 50% October 29, 60% November 1, 70% November 2, 80% November 6, 90% November 11. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 8, 2024 November 30, 2025 October 27.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Oct 17Oct 29Nov 112021: November 42022: October 182023: October 82024: November 302025: October 27
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 4
2022incomplete recordOctober 18
2023May 4October 8
2024April 6November 30
2025April 9October 27
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on March 26 in Carthage is a gamble, because there is a 90% chance of a light frost later that day. The risk drops sharply as the season moves forward, and the cautious date for planting tender crops is April 27, when only a 10% chance of a later frost remains.

The 50% date in spring is April 10; at that point there is an even chance of a light frost occurring after the date. In fall the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 17, with a 10% chance that frost has arrived earlier, and the 50% date is October 29. The hard-frost median dates are March 30 in spring and November 8 in fall, and these dates are listed separately because a temperature of 28 °F can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 27" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 17" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Carthage, TNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Smithville, TN — 23 mi; 2 — Cookeville, TN — 26 mi; 3 — Woodbury, TN — 29 mi; 4 — Murfreesboro, TN — 33 mi; 5 — near Green Hill, TN — 34 mi.TN25 mi · 40 km1. Smithville, TN — 23 mi12. Cookeville, TN — 26 mi23. Woodbury, TN — 29 mi34. Murfreesboro, TN — 33 mi45. near Green Hill, TN — 34 mi5
  1. Smithville, TN 23 mi (37 km)
  2. Cookeville, TN 26 mi (43 km)
  3. Woodbury, TN 29 mi (47 km)
  4. Murfreesboro, TN 33 mi (53 km)
  5. near Green Hill, TN 34 mi (55 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.2456, -85.945.