U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00081544 · Florida

Frost Dates for Chipley, FL

NOAA weather station Chipley (USC00081544), Florida · elevation 130 ft (40 m) · hardiness zone 9a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 27only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 2150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season263 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone9acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Chipley, FLSpring: a frost after February 7 in 9 years out of 10, after March 5 in half of the years, after March 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 4 in 1 year out of 10, before November 21 in half of the years, before December 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 263 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 5First frost ~Nov 21Frost season at Chipley, FLSpring: a frost after February 7 in 9 years out of 10, after March 5 in half of the years, after March 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 4 in 1 year out of 10, before November 21 in half of the years, before December 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 263 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 5First frost ~Nov 21
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 27November 4
50% (typical)March 5November 21
90% (likely)February 7December 16
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
263 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 16
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 8

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost February 28 (5 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 17 (4 days earlier). Frost-free season 263 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Chipley: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 27, 20% March 20, 30% March 16, 40% March 10, 50% March 5, 60% February 28, 70% February 25, 80% February 18, 90% February 7. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2024 February 21, 2025 February 23, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1Mar 27Mar 5Feb 72024: February 212025: February 232026: March 18Fall at Chipley: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 4, 20% November 9, 30% November 13, 40% November 17, 50% November 21, 60% November 27, 70% December 1, 80% December 6, 90% December 16. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2024 December 1, 2025 November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Nov 4Nov 21Dec 162024: December 12025: November 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021incomplete recordincomplete record
2022incomplete recordincomplete record
2023incomplete recordincomplete record
2024February 21December 1
2025February 23November 11
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

March 27 is the cautious spring date for light frost in Chipley, carrying only a 10 % chance of a frost later; it lets a gardener plan to set out tender crops with minimal risk.

The 50 % dates represent even odds for frost. The spring 50 % light-frost date is March 5, and the fall 50 % light-frost date is November 21. For hard frost (28 °F), the median dates are February 16 in spring and December 8 in fall. A frost is equally likely to occur on a date later than the March 5 spring point and on a date earlier than the November 21 fall point.

November 4 is the cautious fall date, with only a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier; it marks the time a gardener can aim to finish harvesting tender crops. Hard frost at 28 °F is more damaging than light frost at 32 °F because it can freeze plant tissue that survives a milder frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 27" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 4" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Chipley, FLNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Geneva, AL — 26 mi; 2 — near Crestview, FL — 58 mi; 3 — Niceville, FL — 59 mi; 4 — Troy, AL — 75 mi; 5 — Tallahassee, FL — 77 mi.FLALGA25 mi · 40 km1. near Geneva, AL — 26 mi12. near Crestview, FL — 58 mi23. Niceville, FL — 59 mi34. Troy, AL — 75 mi45. Tallahassee, FL — 77 mi5
  1. near Geneva, AL 26 mi (42 km)
  2. near Crestview, FL 58 mi (93 km)
  3. Niceville, FL 59 mi (94 km)
  4. Troy, AL 75 mi (121 km)
  5. Tallahassee, FL 77 mi (124 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 9a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 30.7806, -85.5503.