U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00291910 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Cliff, NM

NOAA weather station Cliff 11 SE (USC00291910), New Mexico · elevation 4773 ft (1455 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 24only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season157 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Cliff, NMSpring: a frost after April 28 in 9 years out of 10, after May 9 in half of the years, after May 24 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 3 in 1 year out of 10, before October 15 in half of the years, before October 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 157 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 9First frost ~Oct 15Frost season at Cliff, NMSpring: a frost after April 28 in 9 years out of 10, after May 9 in half of the years, after May 24 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 3 in 1 year out of 10, before October 15 in half of the years, before October 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 157 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 9First frost ~Oct 15
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 24October 3
50% (typical)May 9October 15
90% (likely)April 28October 27
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
157 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 28
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 25

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 12 (3 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 14 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 158 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Cliff: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 24, 20% May 18, 30% May 15, 40% May 11, 50% May 9, 60% May 5, 70% May 3, 80% May 1, 90% April 28. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 24, 2022 May 14, 2023 May 12, 2024 May 7, 2025 May 6, 2026 April 28.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 24May 9Apr 282021: May 242022: May 142023: May 122024: May 72025: May 62026: April 28Fall at Cliff: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 3, 20% October 6, 30% October 9, 40% October 12, 50% October 15, 60% October 17, 70% October 19, 80% October 23, 90% October 27. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 11, 2022 October 20, 2023 October 29, 2024 October 20, 2025 October 20.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 3Oct 15Oct 272021: October 112022: October 202023: October 292024: October 202025: October 20
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 24October 11
2022May 14October 20
2023May 12October 29
2024May 7October 20
2025May 6October 20
2026April 28season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 157 days between the 50% dates in Cliff—May 9 and October 15—frame the period when a light frost (32 °F) is no more likely than not, so tender crops can be grown between those bounds. The 50% date in spring is May 9 and the 50% date in fall is October 15; each marks an even-odds point for a light frost and is not itself a frost date.

In a cautious planting plan the spring light-frost date to set out tender crops is May 24, which carries only a 10 % chance of a later frost, while the cautious fall date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 3, also with a 10 % chance of an earlier frost. A hard frost at 28 °F can cause more severe damage than a light frost, so its 50% dates—April 28 in spring and October 25 in fall—highlight a higher risk window.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 24" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 3" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Cliff, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Duncan, AZ — 36 mi; 2 — Hillsboro, NM — 55 mi; 3 — San Simon, AZ — 56 mi; 4 — Animas, NM — 64 mi; 5 — Safford, AZ — 68 mi.NMAZ25 mi · 40 km1. Duncan, AZ — 36 mi12. Hillsboro, NM — 55 mi23. San Simon, AZ — 56 mi34. Animas, NM — 64 mi45. Safford, AZ — 68 mi5
  1. Duncan, AZ 36 mi (58 km)
  2. Hillsboro, NM 55 mi (88 km)
  3. San Simon, AZ 56 mi (91 km)
  4. Animas, NM 64 mi (103 km)
  5. Safford, AZ 68 mi (110 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 32.8339, -108.5047.