U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00301595 · New York

Frost Dates for Cobleskill, NY

NOAA weather station Cobleskill 2 ESE (USC00301595), New York · elevation 1169 ft (356 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 26only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season148 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Cobleskill, NYSpring: a frost after April 26 in 9 years out of 10, after May 9 in half of the years, after May 26 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 19 in 1 year out of 10, before October 4 in half of the years, before October 20 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 148 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 9First frost ~Oct 4Frost season at Cobleskill, NYSpring: a frost after April 26 in 9 years out of 10, after May 9 in half of the years, after May 26 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 19 in 1 year out of 10, before October 4 in half of the years, before October 20 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 148 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 9First frost ~Oct 4
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 26September 19
50% (typical)May 9October 4
90% (likely)April 26October 20
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
148 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 27
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 15

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 7 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 7 (3 days later). Frost-free season 152 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Cobleskill: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 26, 20% May 20, 30% May 16, 40% May 12, 50% May 9, 60% May 6, 70% May 3, 80% April 30, 90% April 26.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 26May 9Apr 26Fall at Cobleskill: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 19, 20% September 25, 30% September 29, 40% October 1, 50% October 4, 60% October 6, 70% October 10, 80% October 14, 90% October 20.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 19Oct 4Oct 20
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on the early spring date, April 26, is a gamble in Cobleskill, with a 90% chance of a light frost later than that day. Gardeners who prefer the cautious approach wait until the May 26 date, which carries only a 10% chance of a light frost.

The 50% date in spring is May 9; there is an even chance of a light frost occurring after this point. In the fall, the 50% date is October 4, meaning there is a 50% chance a light frost has arrived earlier. The cautious fall date for finishing tender crops is September 19, when only a 10% chance of an earlier light frost exists, while the October 20 date remains a gamble with a 90% chance of a frost already having begun.

Hard frosts at 28 °F, marked by the dates April 27 and October 15, can injure plants that would survive a light frost, making them a more critical threshold for gardeners.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 26" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 19" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Cobleskill, NYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Lansing Manor, NY — 15 mi; 2 — Cooperstown, NY — 25 mi; 3 — near Ravena, NY — 30 mi; 4 — Emmons, NY — 32 mi; 5 — Albany, NY — 33 mi.MA25 mi · 40 km1. Lansing Manor, NY — 15 mi12. Cooperstown, NY — 25 mi23. near Ravena, NY — 30 mi34. Emmons, NY — 32 mi45. Albany, NY — 33 mi5
  1. Lansing Manor, NY 15 mi (24 km)
  2. Cooperstown, NY 25 mi (40 km)
  3. near Ravena, NY 30 mi (48 km)
  4. Emmons, NY 32 mi (51 km)
  5. Albany, NY 33 mi (52 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.6672, -74.4425.