U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00042012 · California

Frost Dates near Corcoran, CA

NOAA weather station Corcoran Irrig Dist (USC00042012), California · elevation 200 ft (61 m) · hardiness zone 9a*

Corcoran is the nearest town to the station (1.2 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 10only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostFebruary 1550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 2750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season285 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone9acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Corcoran, CASpring: a frost after January 17 in 9 years out of 10, after February 15 in half of the years, after March 10 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 12 in 1 year out of 10, before November 27 in half of the years, before December 13 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 285 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Feb 15First frost ~Nov 27Frost season near Corcoran, CASpring: a frost after January 17 in 9 years out of 10, after February 15 in half of the years, after March 10 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 12 in 1 year out of 10, before November 27 in half of the years, before December 13 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 285 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Feb 15First frost ~Nov 27
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 10November 12
50% (typical)February 15November 27
90% (likely)January 17December 13
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
285 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
January 16
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 8

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost February 19 (4 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 30 (3 days later). Frost-free season 281 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Corcoran: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 10, 20% March 3, 30% February 26, 40% February 20, 50% February 15, 60% February 9, 70% February 3, 80% January 29, 90% January 17. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 January 26, 2023 February 18, 2024 January 12, 2025 February 9, 2026 January 10.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Feb 1Mar 1Mar 10Feb 15Jan 172021: January 262023: February 182024: January 122025: February 92026: January 10Fall near Corcoran: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 12, 20% November 17, 30% November 21, 40% November 24, 50% November 27, 60% November 30, 70% December 2, 80% December 6, 90% December 13. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 December 10, 2023 November 25, 2025 January 9.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Nov 12Nov 27Dec 132021: December 102023: November 252025: January 9
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021January 26December 10
2022incomplete recordincomplete record
2023February 18November 25
2024January 12incomplete record
2025February 9January 9
2026January 10season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 285 days between the 50% dates in the Corcoran area define the span where light frost odds are even. February 15 is the 50% date for light frost in spring and November 27 is the 50% date for light frost in fall; these dates are not frost dates but mark the median odds. The hard-frost 50% dates are January 16 in spring and December 8 in fall, when a 28 °F event has a 50 % chance.

For a cautious plan, tender crops should be set out after March 10, which carries only a 10 % chance of a later frost, and should be finished before November 12, which has only a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier. Planting on January 17 or harvesting on December 13 involves a 90 % chance of frost and is a gamble.

A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F, so its probability is a critical consideration.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 10" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 12" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Corcoran, CANumbered nearest stations: 1 — Lodgepole, CA — 59 mi; 2 — Paso Robles (Airport), CA — 66 mi; 3 — Auberry, CA — 69 mi; 4 — Paso Robles, CA — 70 mi; 5 — King City, CA — 87 mi.CA25 mi · 40 km1. Lodgepole, CA — 59 mi12. Paso Robles (Airport), CA — 66 mi23. Auberry, CA — 69 mi34. Paso Robles, CA — 70 mi45. King City, CA — 87 mi5
  1. Lodgepole, CA 59 mi (95 km)
  2. Paso Robles (Airport), CA 66 mi (106 km)
  3. Auberry, CA 69 mi (111 km)
  4. Paso Robles, CA 70 mi (112 km)
  5. King City, CA 87 mi (140 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 9a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.0975, -119.5817.