U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00201896 · Michigan

Frost Dates for Cross Village, MI

NOAA weather station Cross Village 1 E (USC00201896), Michigan · elevation 721 ft (220 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 30only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 1550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season152 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Cross Village, MISpring: a frost after April 30 in 9 years out of 10, after May 15 in half of the years, after May 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 30 in 1 year out of 10, before October 16 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 152 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 15First frost ~Oct 16Frost season at Cross Village, MISpring: a frost after April 30 in 9 years out of 10, after May 15 in half of the years, after May 30 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 30 in 1 year out of 10, before October 16 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 152 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 15First frost ~Oct 16
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 30September 30
50% (typical)May 15October 16
90% (likely)April 30November 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
152 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
May 1
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 31

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 8 (7 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 23 (7 days later). Frost-free season 167 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Cross Village: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 30, 20% May 26, 30% May 22, 40% May 19, 50% May 15, 60% May 11, 70% May 7, 80% May 3, 90% April 30. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 12, 2022 May 5, 2023 May 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 30May 15Apr 302021: May 122022: May 52023: May 17Fall at Cross Village: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 30, 20% October 4, 30% October 7, 40% October 12, 50% October 16, 60% October 20, 70% October 23, 80% October 28, 90% November 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 22, 2022 October 27.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 30Oct 16Nov 12021: October 222022: October 27
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 12October 22
2022May 5October 27
2023May 17incomplete record
2024incomplete recordincomplete record
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

September 30 is the cautious fall date in Cross Village for finishing the harvest, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived.

For light-frost (32 °F) risk, the median dates are May 15 in spring and October 16 in fall; each marks a 50 % chance of frost occurring later (spring) or earlier (fall). Gardeners who prefer a low risk wait until the cautious spring date of May 30, which carries a 10 % chance of a later frost, and they aim to complete tender-crop harvest by the cautious fall date of September 30.

A hard frost at 28 °F, with median dates of May 1 and October 31, can damage or kill plants that would survive a 32 °F light frost, so it is a more critical threshold for garden planning.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 30" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 30" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Cross Village, MINumbered nearest stations: 1 — Pellston, MI — 12 mi; 2 — Petoskey, MI — 19 mi; 3 — St. James 4 SSW Beaver, MI — 26 mi; 4 — Cheboygan, MI — 26 mi; 5 — near Boyne City, MI — 33 mi.MI25 mi · 40 km1. Pellston, MI — 12 mi12. Petoskey, MI — 19 mi23. St. James 4 SSW Beaver, MI — 26 mi34. Cheboygan, MI — 26 mi45. near Boyne City, MI — 33 mi5
  1. Pellston, MI 12 mi (19 km)
  2. Petoskey, MI 19 mi (30 km)
  3. St. James 4 SSW Beaver, MI 26 mi (42 km)
  4. Cheboygan, MI 26 mi (42 km)
  5. near Boyne City, MI 33 mi (53 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 45.6414, -85.0142.