U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00301974 · New York

Frost Dates for Dansville, NY

NOAA weather station Dansville (USC00301974), New York · elevation 660 ft (201 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 19only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season163 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Dansville, NYSpring: a frost after April 21 in 9 years out of 10, after May 4 in half of the years, after May 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 16 in half of the years, before October 31 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 163 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 4First frost ~Oct 16Frost season at Dansville, NYSpring: a frost after April 21 in 9 years out of 10, after May 4 in half of the years, after May 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 16 in half of the years, before October 31 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 163 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 4First frost ~Oct 16
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 19October 1
50% (typical)May 4October 16
90% (likely)April 21October 31
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
163 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 23
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 2 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 22 (6 days later). Frost-free season 171 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Dansville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 19, 20% May 14, 30% May 10, 40% May 6, 50% May 4, 60% May 1, 70% April 29, 80% April 26, 90% April 21. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 1, 2022 May 8, 2023 May 18, 2024 April 26, 2025 April 18, 2026 May 12.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 19May 4Apr 212021: May 12022: May 82023: May 182024: April 262025: April 182026: May 12Fall at Dansville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 1, 20% October 6, 30% October 9, 40% October 13, 50% October 16, 60% October 19, 70% October 22, 80% October 26, 90% October 31. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 3, 2023 October 23, 2024 October 17, 2025 October 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 1Oct 16Oct 312021: November 52022: October 32023: October 232024: October 172025: October 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 1November 5
2022May 8October 3
2023May 18October 23
2024April 26October 17
2025April 18October 10
2026May 12season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 1 is the cautious fall date in Dansville for finishing the harvest of tender crops; there is a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier. In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is May 19, which carries a 10 % chance of a frost later, while the 50 % median date is May 4. The median light-frost dates are May 4 and October 16, giving a 163-day span between them, and the hard-frost median dates are April 23 in spring and November 1 in fall. A gardener following the cautious plan would wait until after May 19 to place tender crops outdoors and would target finishing tender harvests by October 1 to stay within the lower-risk window. A hard frost matters more than a light frost because the colder 28 °F temperature can cause far greater damage to plants.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 19" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 1" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Dansville, NYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Hemlock, NY — 16 mi; 2 — Honeoye, NY — 19 mi; 3 — Angelica, NY — 23 mi; 4 — Avon, NY — 25 mi; 5 — Warsaw, NY — 27 mi.PA25 mi · 40 km1. Hemlock, NY — 16 mi12. Honeoye, NY — 19 mi23. Angelica, NY — 23 mi34. Avon, NY — 25 mi45. Warsaw, NY — 27 mi5
  1. Hemlock, NY 16 mi (25 km)
  2. Honeoye, NY 19 mi (30 km)
  3. Angelica, NY 23 mi (38 km)
  4. Avon, NY 25 mi (40 km)
  5. Warsaw, NY 27 mi (43 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.5647, -77.7175.