U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00322304 · North Dakota

Frost Dates for Drake, ND

NOAA weather station Drake 9 NE (USC00322304), North Dakota · elevation 1547 ft (472 m) · hardiness zone 3b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 25only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 1250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostSeptember 2750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season137 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone3bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Drake, NDSpring: a frost after May 2 in 9 years out of 10, after May 12 in half of the years, after May 25 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 16 in 1 year out of 10, before September 27 in half of the years, before October 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 137 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 12First frost ~Sep 27Frost season at Drake, NDSpring: a frost after May 2 in 9 years out of 10, after May 12 in half of the years, after May 25 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 16 in 1 year out of 10, before September 27 in half of the years, before October 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 137 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 12First frost ~Sep 27
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 25September 16
50% (typical)May 12September 27
90% (likely)May 2October 8
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
137 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
May 4
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 4

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 12 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost September 29 (2 days later). Frost-free season 139 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Drake: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 25, 20% May 20, 30% May 17, 40% May 15, 50% May 12, 60% May 10, 70% May 8, 80% May 5, 90% May 2. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 12, 2022 May 2, 2023 May 3, 2024 April 29, 2025 April 30, 2026 May 11.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 25May 12May 22021: May 122022: May 22023: May 32024: April 292025: April 302026: May 11Fall at Drake: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 16, 20% September 20, 30% September 23, 40% September 25, 50% September 27, 60% September 29, 70% October 1, 80% October 4, 90% October 8. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 20, 2022 September 22, 2023 October 7, 2024 October 13.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Sep 16Sep 27Oct 82021: October 202022: September 222023: October 72024: October 13
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 12October 20
2022May 2September 22
2023May 3October 7
2024April 29October 13
2025April 30incomplete record
2026May 11season not over yet

What these dates mean

The cautious fall date for finishing the harvest in Drake is September 16, when there is only a 10 % chance a light frost has arrived. In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is May 25, which carries a 10 % chance of a later frost; the earlier May 2 date carries a 90 % chance and is a gamble.

The 50 % dates—May 12 in spring and September 27 in fall—represent the median point where a light frost is equally likely to occur later or earlier, giving gardeners a balanced reference. The hard-frost median dates are May 4 and October 4; a hard frost at 28 °F can injure plants that would survive a light frost at 32 °F, so it is a more critical threshold.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 25" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 16" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Drake, NDNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Towner, ND — 23 mi; 2 — Rugby, ND — 26 mi; 3 — Harvey, ND — 26 mi; 4 — Willow City, ND — 39 mi; 5 — McClusky, ND — 40 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Towner, ND — 23 mi12. Rugby, ND — 26 mi23. Harvey, ND — 26 mi34. Willow City, ND — 39 mi45. McClusky, ND — 40 mi5
  1. Towner, ND 23 mi (36 km)
  2. Rugby, ND 26 mi (41 km)
  3. Harvey, ND 26 mi (42 km)
  4. Willow City, ND 39 mi (62 km)
  5. McClusky, ND 40 mi (64 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 3b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 48.0486, -100.3094.