U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00213411 · Minnesota

Frost Dates near East Gull Lake, MN

NOAA weather station Gull Lake Dam (USC00213411), Minnesota · elevation 1215 ft (370 m) · hardiness zone 4a*

East Gull Lake is the nearest town to the station (0.4 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 14only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season156 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone4acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near East Gull Lake, MNSpring: a frost after April 21 in 9 years out of 10, after May 2 in half of the years, after May 14 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 25 in 1 year out of 10, before October 6 in half of the years, before October 21 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 156 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 2First frost ~Oct 6Frost season near East Gull Lake, MNSpring: a frost after April 21 in 9 years out of 10, after May 2 in half of the years, after May 14 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 25 in 1 year out of 10, before October 6 in half of the years, before October 21 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 156 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 2First frost ~Oct 6
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 14September 25
50% (typical)May 2October 6
90% (likely)April 21October 21
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
156 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 23
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 19

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 3 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 11 (5 days later). Frost-free season 160 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near East Gull Lake: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 14, 20% May 10, 30% May 7, 40% May 4, 50% May 2, 60% April 30, 70% April 29, 80% April 26, 90% April 21. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 12, 2022 May 4, 2023 May 3, 2024 April 21, 2025 April 26, 2026 May 20.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1May 14May 2Apr 212021: May 122022: May 42023: May 32024: April 212025: April 262026: May 20Fall near East Gull Lake: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 25, 20% September 30, 30% October 2, 40% October 4, 50% October 6, 60% October 10, 70% October 13, 80% October 16, 90% October 21. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 22, 2022 September 28, 2023 October 17, 2024 October 16, 2025 October 8.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 25Oct 6Oct 212021: October 222022: September 282023: October 172024: October 162025: October 8
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 12October 22
2022May 4September 28
2023May 3October 17
2024April 21October 16
2025April 26October 8
2026May 20season not over yet

What these dates mean

September 25 is the cautious fall date for the East Gull Lake area, marking the point when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived and tender crops should be harvested.

In spring, the cautious date for setting out tender crops is May 14, when the risk of a light frost later than this date drops to 10 %; planting before the 90 % risk date of April 21 is a gamble. The 50 % date is May 2; there is a 50 % chance of a frost later than this date. In fall, the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is September 25, with only a 10 % chance that a light frost has occurred earlier; extending the season past the 90 % risk date of October 21 is a gamble. The 50 % date is October 6; there is a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than this date.

Hard frosts, defined as 28 °F, can cause more severe damage than light frosts at 32 °F, so the median hard-frost dates are April 23 in spring and October 19 in fall.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 14" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 25" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near East Gull Lake, MNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Brainerd, MN — 9 mi; 2 — near Crosslake, MN — 21 mi; 3 — Long Prairie, MN — 40 mi; 4 — Park Rapids, MN — 48 mi; 5 — near Collegeville, MN — 58 mi.MN25 mi · 40 km1. Brainerd, MN — 9 mi12. near Crosslake, MN — 21 mi23. Long Prairie, MN — 40 mi34. Park Rapids, MN — 48 mi45. near Collegeville, MN — 58 mi5
  1. Brainerd, MN 9 mi (14 km)
  2. near Crosslake, MN 21 mi (35 km)
  3. Long Prairie, MN 40 mi (64 km)
  4. Park Rapids, MN 48 mi (77 km)
  5. near Collegeville, MN 58 mi (93 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 4a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 46.4119, -94.3608.