U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00093992 · Arkansas

Frost Dates near El Dorado, AR

NOAA weather station El Dorado S Ar Regional Airport (USW00093992), Arkansas · elevation 252 ft (77 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

El Dorado is the nearest town to the station (8.6 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 9only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season230 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near El Dorado, ARSpring: a frost after March 1 in 9 years out of 10, after March 24 in half of the years, after April 9 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 24 in 1 year out of 10, before November 7 in half of the years, before November 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 230 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 24First frost ~Nov 7Frost season near El Dorado, ARSpring: a frost after March 1 in 9 years out of 10, after March 24 in half of the years, after April 9 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 24 in 1 year out of 10, before November 7 in half of the years, before November 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 230 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 24First frost ~Nov 7
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 9October 24
50% (typical)March 24November 7
90% (likely)March 1November 26
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
230 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 9
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 20

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 19 (5 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 7. Frost-free season 235 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near El Dorado: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 9, 20% April 4, 30% March 31, 40% March 27, 50% March 24, 60% March 20, 70% March 16, 80% March 10, 90% March 1. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 2, 2022 March 13, 2023 March 20, 2024 March 19, 2025 March 21, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 9Mar 24Mar 12021: April 22022: March 132023: March 202024: March 192025: March 212026: March 17Fall near El Dorado: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 24, 20% October 30, 30% November 1, 40% November 4, 50% November 7, 60% November 10, 70% November 14, 80% November 19, 90% November 26. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 18, 2023 November 1, 2024 October 17, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 24Nov 7Nov 262021: November 52022: October 182023: November 12024: October 172025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 2November 5
2022March 13October 18
2023March 20November 1
2024March 19October 17
2025March 21November 10
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 230 days between the 32°F 50% dates in the El Dorado area define the window in which many tender crops can be grown. For a gardener, the median light-frost date is March 24 in spring and November 7 in fall; each marks an even chance of a frost occurring later (spring) or earlier (fall). A hard-frost median occurs on March 9 and November 20, indicating when temperatures of 28 °F become equally likely.

The cautious spring date for setting out tender crops is April 9, when there is only a 10 % chance of a later frost, while the cautious fall date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 24, when there is only a 10 % chance that a frost has already arrived. Planting on March 1 or harvesting until November 26 carries a 90 % chance of frost and is therefore a gamble. Hard frost matters more than light frost because a 28 °F event can damage plant tissue that survives a 32 °F chill.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 9" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 24" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near El Dorado, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Calion Lock and Dam, AR — 20 mi; 2 — Camden, AR — 26 mi; 3 — Homer, LA — 32 mi; 4 — Fordyce, AR — 48 mi; 5 — Crossett, AR — 51 mi.ARLAMS25 mi · 40 km1. Calion Lock and Dam, AR — 20 mi12. Camden, AR — 26 mi23. Homer, LA — 32 mi34. Fordyce, AR — 48 mi45. Crossett, AR — 51 mi5
  1. Calion Lock and Dam, AR 20 mi (32 km)
  2. Camden, AR 26 mi (41 km)
  3. Homer, LA 32 mi (51 km)
  4. Fordyce, AR 48 mi (77 km)
  5. Crossett, AR 51 mi (82 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 33.2208, -92.8142.