U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00232503 · Missouri

Frost Dates for Eldon, MO

NOAA weather station Eldon (USC00232503), Missouri · elevation 924 ft (282 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 27only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season208 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Eldon, MOSpring: a frost after March 22 in 9 years out of 10, after April 7 in half of the years, after April 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 19 in 1 year out of 10, before November 1 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 208 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 7First frost ~Nov 1Frost season at Eldon, MOSpring: a frost after March 22 in 9 years out of 10, after April 7 in half of the years, after April 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 19 in 1 year out of 10, before November 1 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 208 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 7First frost ~Nov 1
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 27October 19
50% (typical)April 7November 1
90% (likely)March 22November 16
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
208 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 28
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 11

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 8 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 1. Frost-free season 207 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Eldon: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 27, 20% April 20, 30% April 16, 40% April 11, 50% April 7, 60% April 4, 70% April 1, 80% March 29, 90% March 22. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 9, 2023 March 29, 2024 March 28, 2025 March 21, 2026 March 29.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 27Apr 7Mar 222021: April 232022: April 92023: March 292024: March 282025: March 212026: March 29Fall at Eldon: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 19, 20% October 24, 30% October 28, 40% October 31, 50% November 1, 60% November 4, 70% November 7, 80% November 10, 90% November 16. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 30, 2024 November 22, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 19Nov 1Nov 162021: November 42022: October 182023: October 302024: November 222025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 4
2022April 9October 18
2023March 29October 30
2024March 28November 22
2025March 21November 10
2026March 29season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 27 is the cautious spring date in Eldon, offering a gardener a point at which there is only a 10 % chance of a light frost later, making it suitable for setting out tender crops.

The 50% date for light frost in spring is April 7, indicating an even chance of frost later, while the 50% date for light frost in fall is November 1, indicating an even chance of frost earlier. The median hard-frost dates are March 28 in spring and November 11 in fall; these are the points at which a 28 °F frost is as likely as not. For a cautious plan in fall, October 19 provides a 10 % chance of a light frost earlier, allowing the gardener to finish harvesting tender crops. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue that survives a light frost at 32 °F, so it is a more serious risk.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 27" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 19" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Eldon, MONumbered nearest stations: 1 — California, MO — 19 mi; 2 — Jefferson City, MO — 27 mi; 3 — Columbia, MO — 38 mi; 4 — Sedalia, MO — 41 mi; 5 — Waynesville, MO — 42 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. California, MO — 19 mi12. Jefferson City, MO — 27 mi23. Columbia, MO — 38 mi34. Sedalia, MO — 41 mi45. Waynesville, MO — 42 mi5
  1. California, MO 19 mi (31 km)
  2. Jefferson City, MO 27 mi (44 km)
  3. Columbia, MO 38 mi (61 km)
  4. Sedalia, MO 41 mi (67 km)
  5. Waynesville, MO 42 mi (67 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 38.3486, -92.5811.