U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00232591 · Missouri

Frost Dates for Elsberry, MO

NOAA weather station Elsberry 1 S (USC00232591), Missouri · elevation 475 ft (145 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 5only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season181 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Elsberry, MOSpring: a frost after April 6 in 9 years out of 10, after April 20 in half of the years, after May 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 6 in 1 year out of 10, before October 20 in half of the years, before October 31 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 181 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 20First frost ~Oct 20Frost season at Elsberry, MOSpring: a frost after April 6 in 9 years out of 10, after April 20 in half of the years, after May 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 6 in 1 year out of 10, before October 20 in half of the years, before October 31 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 181 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 20First frost ~Oct 20
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 5October 6
50% (typical)April 20October 20
90% (likely)April 6October 31
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
181 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 6
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 29

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 19 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 22 (2 days later). Frost-free season 186 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Elsberry: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 5, 20% April 30, 30% April 27, 40% April 23, 50% April 20, 60% April 17, 70% April 13, 80% April 9, 90% April 6. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2024 April 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 5Apr 20Apr 62021: April 222024: April 21Fall at Elsberry: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 6, 20% October 11, 30% October 14, 40% October 17, 50% October 20, 60% October 22, 70% October 24, 80% October 28, 90% October 31. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2023 October 30, 2024 October 16.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 6Oct 20Oct 312023: October 302024: October 16
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22incomplete record
2022incomplete recordincomplete record
2023incomplete recordOctober 30
2024April 21October 16
2025incomplete recordno data
2026no dataseason not over yet

What these dates mean

The 181 days between the 50 % light-frost dates in Elsberry—April 20 and October 20—contain the interval when a light frost is less likely than not to occur.

In spring, April 20 marks the 50 % light-frost point, meaning there is a 50 % chance of a frost later than that day. The cautious date for setting out tender crops is May 5, which carries only a 10 % chance of a later frost; planting on April 6 would be a gamble with a 90 % chance of a later frost. In fall, October 20 is the 50 % light-frost point, with a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than that day. The cautious date for finishing tender crops is October 6, which has only a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier; waiting until October 31 would be a gamble with a 90 % chance of an earlier frost.

A hard frost at 28 °F can cause more severe plant injury than a light frost at 32 °F, so the median hard-frost dates of April 6 and October 29 are useful reference points.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 5" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 6" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Elsberry, MONumbered nearest stations: 1 — Jerseyville, IL — 24 mi; 2 — White Hall, IL — 29 mi; 3 — near Weldon Spring, MO — 32 mi; 4 — St. Louis (Spirit of St. Louis Airport), MO — 35 mi; 5 — St. Charles, MO — 35 mi.ILMO25 mi · 40 km1. Jerseyville, IL — 24 mi12. White Hall, IL — 29 mi23. near Weldon Spring, MO — 32 mi34. St. Louis (Spirit of St. Louis Airport), MO — 35 mi45. St. Charles, MO — 35 mi5
  1. Jerseyville, IL 24 mi (38 km)
  2. White Hall, IL 29 mi (47 km)
  3. near Weldon Spring, MO 32 mi (52 km)
  4. St. Louis (Spirit of St. Louis Airport), MO 35 mi (57 km)
  5. St. Charles, MO 35 mi (57 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 39.1558, -90.7831.