U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00282805 · New Jersey

Frost Dates for Estell Manor, NJ

NOAA weather station Estell Manor (USC00282805), New Jersey · elevation 85 ft (26 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 12only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season180 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Estell Manor, NJSpring: a frost after April 8 in 9 years out of 10, after April 24 in half of the years, after May 12 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 8 in 1 year out of 10, before October 22 in half of the years, before November 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 180 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 24First frost ~Oct 22Frost season at Estell Manor, NJSpring: a frost after April 8 in 9 years out of 10, after April 24 in half of the years, after May 12 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 8 in 1 year out of 10, before October 22 in half of the years, before November 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 180 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 24First frost ~Oct 22
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 12October 8
50% (typical)April 24October 22
90% (likely)April 8November 5
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
180 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 9
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 3

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 19 (5 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 27 (5 days later). Frost-free season 188 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Estell Manor: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 12, 20% May 5, 30% May 1, 40% April 27, 50% April 24, 60% April 21, 70% April 18, 80% April 14, 90% April 8. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 4, 2022 April 30, 2023 April 19, 2024 April 26, 2025 April 17, 2026 April 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 12Apr 24Apr 82021: April 42022: April 302023: April 192024: April 262025: April 172026: April 21Fall at Estell Manor: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 8, 20% October 13, 30% October 17, 40% October 20, 50% October 22, 60% October 25, 70% October 29, 80% November 1, 90% November 5. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3, 2022 October 19, 2023 November 2, 2024 October 16, 2025 November 7.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 8Oct 22Nov 52021: November 32022: October 192023: November 22024: October 162025: November 7
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 4November 3
2022April 30October 19
2023April 19November 2
2024April 26October 16
2025April 17November 7
2026April 21season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on April 8 in Estell Manor carries a 90% chance of a light frost, making it a gamble for growers. Planting that early runs a high risk that a frost will still occur later in the season.

A cautious spring schedule selects May 12, which has only a 10% chance of a light frost later, while a cautious fall schedule finishes tender crops by October 8, when there is only a 10% chance of a frost having arrived earlier. The 50% spring date is April 24, with a 50% chance of a frost later, and the 50% fall date is October 22, with a 50% chance of a frost earlier. The hard-frost median dates are April 9 in spring and November 3 in fall.

Hard frost at 28°F can damage plant tissue that would survive a light frost at 32°F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 12" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 8" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Estell Manor, NJNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Millville, NJ — 13 mi; 2 — Atlantic City (Airport), NJ — 15 mi; 3 — Atlantic City, NJ — 22 mi; 4 — Seabrook Farms, NJ — 22 mi; 5 — Indian Mills, NJ — 29 mi.NJPADEMD25 mi · 40 km1. Millville, NJ — 13 mi12. Atlantic City (Airport), NJ — 15 mi23. Atlantic City, NJ — 22 mi34. Seabrook Farms, NJ — 22 mi45. Indian Mills, NJ — 29 mi5
  1. Millville, NJ 13 mi (20 km)
  2. Atlantic City (Airport), NJ 15 mi (24 km)
  3. Atlantic City, NJ 22 mi (35 km)
  4. Seabrook Farms, NJ 22 mi (35 km)
  5. Indian Mills, NJ 29 mi (46 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 39.3831, -74.8294.