U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00413420 · Texas

Frost Dates for Gainesville, TX

NOAA weather station Gainesville 5 ENE (USC00413420), Texas · elevation 870 ft (265 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 6only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season242 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Gainesville, TXSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 19 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 31 in 1 year out of 10, before November 14 in half of the years, before December 2 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 242 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 19First frost ~Nov 14Frost season at Gainesville, TXSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 19 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 31 in 1 year out of 10, before November 14 in half of the years, before December 2 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 242 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 19First frost ~Nov 14
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 6October 31
50% (typical)March 19November 14
90% (likely)February 28December 2
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
242 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 5
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 28

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 17 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 15 (1 day later). Frost-free season 243 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Gainesville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 6, 20% April 1, 30% March 28, 40% March 23, 50% March 19, 60% March 14, 70% March 10, 80% March 5, 90% February 28. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 21, 2022 March 13, 2023 March 20, 2024 February 29, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 6Mar 19Feb 282021: February 212022: March 132023: March 202024: February 292026: March 17Fall at Gainesville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 31, 20% November 4, 30% November 7, 40% November 11, 50% November 14, 60% November 17, 70% November 21, 80% November 27, 90% December 2. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 26, 2022 November 12, 2023 October 30, 2024 November 26, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 31Nov 14Dec 22021: November 262022: November 122023: October 302024: November 262025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 21November 26
2022March 13November 12
2023March 20October 30
2024February 29November 26
2025incomplete recordNovember 10
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on February 28 carries a 90 % chance that a light frost will still occur later in spring, so planting then is a gamble. The cautious spring date is April 6, when there is only a 10 % chance of a later frost, and the 50 % date is March 19, marking an even-odds point for light frost risk.

For fall, the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 31, with a 10 % chance that a light frost has already arrived, while December 2 represents a 90 % chance of a frost occurring earlier, making a late-season gamble. The 50 % date is November 14, the median point for light-frost odds. The 50 % hard-frost dates are March 5 in spring and November 28 in fall; a hard frost matters more because its lower temperature can damage or kill plants that survive a light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 6" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 31" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Gainesville, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Sherman, TX — 24 mi; 2 — Denton, TX — 31 mi; 3 — Madill, OK — 35 mi; 4 — Healdton, OK — 46 mi; 5 — Dallas (Dallas-Fort Worth Airport), TX — 52 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Sherman, TX — 24 mi12. Denton, TX — 31 mi23. Madill, OK — 35 mi34. Healdton, OK — 46 mi45. Dallas (Dallas-Fort Worth Airport), TX — 52 mi5
  1. Sherman, TX 24 mi (39 km)
  2. Denton, TX 31 mi (50 km)
  3. Madill, OK 35 mi (56 km)
  4. Healdton, OK 46 mi (73 km)
  5. Dallas (Dallas-Fort Worth Airport), TX 52 mi (83 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 33.6461, -97.0592.