U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00026471 · Arizona

Frost Dates near Grand Canyon Village, AZ

NOAA weather station Phantom Ranch (USC00026471), Arizona · elevation 2530 ft (771 m) · hardiness zone 9b*

Grand Canyon Village is the nearest town to the station (5.3 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter March 4only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostFebruary 950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostDecember 550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season295 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone9bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Grand Canyon Village, AZSpring: a frost after January 20 in 9 years out of 10, after February 9 in half of the years, after March 4 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 21 in 1 year out of 10, before December 5 in half of the years, before December 23 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 295 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Feb 9First frost ~Dec 5Frost season near Grand Canyon Village, AZSpring: a frost after January 20 in 9 years out of 10, after February 9 in half of the years, after March 4 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 21 in 1 year out of 10, before December 5 in half of the years, before December 23 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 295 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Feb 9First frost ~Dec 5
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 25 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)March 4November 21
50% (typical)February 9December 5
90% (likely)January 20December 23
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
295 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
January 22
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 20

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost February 9 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost December 7 (2 days later). Frost-free season 299 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Grand Canyon Village: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% March 4, 20% February 26, 30% February 20, 40% February 14, 50% February 9, 60% February 6, 70% February 1, 80% January 28, 90% January 20. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 18, 2022 March 12, 2023 February 16, 2024 February 12, 2026 February 27.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Feb 1Mar 1Mar 4Feb 9Jan 202021: February 182022: March 122023: February 162024: February 122026: February 27Fall near Grand Canyon Village: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 21, 20% November 26, 30% November 30, 40% December 2, 50% December 5, 60% December 8, 70% December 11, 80% December 15, 90% December 23. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 December 12, 2022 November 17, 2023 December 24, 2024 December 14.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Dec 1Jan 1Nov 21Dec 5Dec 232021: December 122022: November 172023: December 242024: December 14
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 18December 12
2022March 12November 17
2023February 16December 24
2024February 12December 14
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026February 27season not over yet

What these dates mean

November 21 is the cautious fall date to finish harvesting tender crops, with only a 10 % chance a light frost has arrived earlier. The 50 % light-frost date of December 5 marks the point where a frost is equally likely to have occurred before or after that day, and the hard-frost 50 % date of December 20 shows when a 28 °F freeze is equally probable on either side.

In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is March 4, when there is a 10 % chance of a light frost later; the 50 % light-frost date is February 9, indicating equal odds of frost before or after. The hard-frost 50 % date of January 22 provides the same balance for a 28 °F event. A hard frost matters more because temperatures of 28 °F can cause far more severe damage to plant tissue than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after March 4" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 21" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Grand Canyon Village, AZNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Wupatki National Monument, AZ — 57 mi; 2 — Pipe Spring National Monument, AZ — 63 mi; 3 — Kanab, UT — 68 mi; 4 — Seligman, AZ — 69 mi; 5 — near Flagstaff, AZ — 71 mi.UTNV50 mi · 80 km1. Wupatki National Monument, AZ — 57 mi12. Pipe Spring National Monument, AZ — 63 mi23. Kanab, UT — 68 mi34. Seligman, AZ — 69 mi45. near Flagstaff, AZ — 71 mi5
  1. Wupatki National Monument, AZ 57 mi (92 km)
  2. Pipe Spring National Monument, AZ 63 mi (102 km)
  3. Kanab, UT 68 mi (110 km)
  4. Seligman, AZ 69 mi (112 km)
  5. near Flagstaff, AZ 71 mi (114 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 9b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.1067, -112.0947.