U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00224377 · Mississippi

Frost Dates for Independence, MS

NOAA weather station Independence 1 W (USC00224377), Mississippi · elevation 345 ft (105 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 19only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 3150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season212 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Independence, MSSpring: a frost after March 15 in 9 years out of 10, after April 3 in half of the years, after April 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 18 in 1 year out of 10, before October 31 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 212 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 3First frost ~Oct 31Frost season at Independence, MSSpring: a frost after March 15 in 9 years out of 10, after April 3 in half of the years, after April 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 18 in 1 year out of 10, before October 31 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 212 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 3First frost ~Oct 31
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 19October 18
50% (typical)April 3October 31
90% (likely)March 15November 16
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
212 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 20
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 10

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 3 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 1 (1 day later). Frost-free season 215 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Independence: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 19, 20% April 14, 30% April 9, 40% April 5, 50% April 3, 60% March 31, 70% March 27, 80% March 22, 90% March 15.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1May 1Apr 19Apr 3Mar 15Fall at Independence: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 18, 20% October 22, 30% October 25, 40% October 28, 50% October 31, 60% November 2, 70% November 5, 80% November 10, 90% November 16.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 18Oct 31Nov 16
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

The 212 days between the 32°F 50% dates of April 3 and October 31 bracket the stretch in which a light frost is as likely as not; April 3 carries a 50 % chance of a frost later than this date, while October 31 carries a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than this date.

The cautious spring date for setting out tender crops is April 19, when there is only a 10 % chance a light frost will occur later; planting on March 15 carries a 90 % chance of a later frost and is therefore a gamble. In the fall the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 18, with only a 10 % chance a light frost has arrived earlier, while November 16 represents a 90 % chance a frost has already begun.

Hard frosts, noted by the 28°F 50% dates of March 20 and November 10, matter more than light frosts because the lower temperature can kill tissue that survives a 32°F event.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 19" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 18" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Independence, MSNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Hernando, MS — 13 mi; 2 — Memphis (Airport), TN — 26 mi; 3 — University, MS — 28 mi; 4 — near Cordova, TN — 30 mi; 5 — West Memphis, AR — 36 mi.ARTN25 mi · 40 km1. Hernando, MS — 13 mi12. Memphis (Airport), TN — 26 mi23. University, MS — 28 mi34. near Cordova, TN — 30 mi45. West Memphis, AR — 36 mi5
  1. Hernando, MS 13 mi (21 km)
  2. Memphis (Airport), TN 26 mi (43 km)
  3. University, MS 28 mi (45 km)
  4. near Cordova, TN 30 mi (48 km)
  5. West Memphis, AR 36 mi (58 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.6989, -89.8214.