U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00414570 · Texas

Frost Dates for Jayton, TX

NOAA weather station Jayton (USC00414570), Texas · elevation 2010 ft (613 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 19only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season220 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Jayton, TXSpring: a frost after March 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 1 in half of the years, after April 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 22 in 1 year out of 10, before November 5 in half of the years, before November 17 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 220 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 1First frost ~Nov 5Frost season at Jayton, TXSpring: a frost after March 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 1 in half of the years, after April 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 22 in 1 year out of 10, before November 5 in half of the years, before November 17 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 220 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 1First frost ~Nov 5
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 19October 22
50% (typical)April 1November 5
90% (likely)March 9November 17
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
220 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 15
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 14

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 2 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 5. Frost-free season 217 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Jayton: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 19, 20% April 12, 30% April 7, 40% April 3, 50% April 1, 60% March 28, 70% March 24, 80% March 17, 90% March 9. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 20, 2022 March 25, 2023 March 20, 2024 March 27, 2025 March 21, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1May 1Apr 19Apr 1Mar 92021: April 202022: March 252023: March 202024: March 272025: March 212026: March 18Fall at Jayton: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 22, 20% October 27, 30% October 31, 40% November 3, 50% November 5, 60% November 8, 70% November 11, 80% November 14, 90% November 17. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 22, 2022 November 12, 2023 October 29, 2024 November 20, 2025 October 30.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 22Nov 5Nov 172021: November 222022: November 122023: October 292024: November 202025: October 30
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 20November 22
2022March 25November 12
2023March 20October 29
2024March 27November 20
2025March 21October 30
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 19 is the cautious spring light-frost date for Jayton, with only a 10 % chance that a frost occurs later; this lets a gardener schedule the outdoor placement of tender crops with minimal risk. The earlier spring date, March 9, carries a 90 % chance of a frost later and is a gamble, while the median April 1 date marks the point where a light frost has equal odds of occurring on either side of the date.

October 22 serves as the cautious fall light-frost date, offering only a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier, so it is the date to aim for completing harvest of tender crops. The median November 5 date likewise indicates even odds for a light frost, and the hard-frost median dates are March 15 in spring and November 14 in fall. A hard frost, reaching 28 °F, can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F, so its timing is especially important for protecting sensitive crops.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 19" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 22" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Jayton, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Aspermont, TX — 21 mi; 2 — Rotan, TX — 28 mi; 3 — Stamford, TX — 50 mi; 4 — Floydada, TX — 67 mi; 5 — Lubbock, TX — 77 mi.TX25 mi · 40 km1. Aspermont, TX — 21 mi12. Rotan, TX — 28 mi23. Stamford, TX — 50 mi34. Floydada, TX — 67 mi45. Lubbock, TX — 77 mi5
  1. Aspermont, TX 21 mi (34 km)
  2. Rotan, TX 28 mi (46 km)
  3. Stamford, TX 50 mi (80 km)
  4. Floydada, TX 67 mi (108 km)
  5. Lubbock, TX 77 mi (123 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 33.2542, -100.5731.