U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00314496 · North Carolina

Frost Dates for Jefferson, NC

NOAA weather station Jefferson 2 E (USC00314496), North Carolina · elevation 2759 ft (841 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 24only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 850% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season154 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Jefferson, NCSpring: a frost after April 22 in 9 years out of 10, after May 7 in half of the years, after May 24 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 25 in 1 year out of 10, before October 8 in half of the years, before October 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 154 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 7First frost ~Oct 8Frost season at Jefferson, NCSpring: a frost after April 22 in 9 years out of 10, after May 7 in half of the years, after May 24 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 25 in 1 year out of 10, before October 8 in half of the years, before October 22 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 154 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 7First frost ~Oct 8
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 24September 25
50% (typical)May 7October 8
90% (likely)April 22October 22
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
154 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 25
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 18

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 4 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 14 (6 days later). Frost-free season 162 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Jefferson: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 24, 20% May 19, 30% May 14, 40% May 11, 50% May 7, 60% May 4, 70% May 1, 80% April 27, 90% April 22. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 15, 2022 May 10, 2023 May 6, 2024 April 26, 2025 April 17, 2026 May 12.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 24May 7Apr 222021: May 152022: May 102023: May 62024: April 262025: April 172026: May 12Fall at Jefferson: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 25, 20% October 1, 30% October 3, 40% October 6, 50% October 8, 60% October 11, 70% October 14, 80% October 17, 90% October 22. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 19, 2022 September 28, 2023 October 9, 2024 October 11, 2025 October 17.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 25Oct 8Oct 222021: October 192022: September 282023: October 92024: October 112025: October 17
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 15October 19
2022May 10September 28
2023May 6October 9
2024April 26October 11
2025April 17October 17
2026May 12season not over yet

What these dates mean

The cautious fall date for finishing the harvest in Jefferson is September 25, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier.

Gardeners planning tender crops in spring use the cautious date of May 24, which carries a 10 % chance of a light frost later. The median, or 50 % date, for light frost is May 7, meaning the odds of frost are even on that day. The median light-frost date in fall is October 8, and the median hard-frost dates are April 25 in spring and October 18 in fall. The interval between the two 32°F 50 % dates covers 154 days, as calculated from 29 years of record.

A hard frost matters more than a light frost because the lower temperature of 28 °F can injure plants that survive a 32 °F light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 24" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 25" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Jefferson, NCNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Boone, NC — 19 mi; 2 — near Mountain City, TN — 21 mi; 3 — West Kerr Scott Resv, NC — 23 mi; 4 — North Wilkesboro, NC — 23 mi; 5 — near Banner Elk, NC — 29 mi.NCVATN25 mi · 40 km1. Boone, NC — 19 mi12. near Mountain City, TN — 21 mi23. West Kerr Scott Resv, NC — 23 mi34. North Wilkesboro, NC — 23 mi45. near Banner Elk, NC — 29 mi5
  1. Boone, NC 19 mi (30 km)
  2. near Mountain City, TN 21 mi (34 km)
  3. West Kerr Scott Resv, NC 23 mi (37 km)
  4. North Wilkesboro, NC 23 mi (38 km)
  5. near Banner Elk, NC 29 mi (47 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.4175, -81.4297.