U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00234544 · Missouri

Frost Dates for Kirksville, MO

NOAA weather station Kirksville (USC00234544), Missouri · elevation 970 ft (296 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 5only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season179 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Kirksville, MOSpring: a frost after April 7 in 9 years out of 10, after April 21 in half of the years, after May 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 2 in 1 year out of 10, before October 19 in half of the years, before October 31 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 179 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 21First frost ~Oct 19Frost season at Kirksville, MOSpring: a frost after April 7 in 9 years out of 10, after April 21 in half of the years, after May 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 2 in 1 year out of 10, before October 19 in half of the years, before October 31 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 179 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 21First frost ~Oct 19
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 5October 2
50% (typical)April 21October 19
90% (likely)April 7October 31
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
179 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 10
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 29

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 21 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 23 (4 days later). Frost-free season 185 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Kirksville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 5, 20% May 1, 30% April 28, 40% April 25, 50% April 21, 60% April 18, 70% April 15, 80% April 12, 90% April 7. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2022 April 27, 2023 April 25, 2024 April 22, 2026 April 8.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 5Apr 21Apr 72022: April 272023: April 252024: April 222026: April 8Fall at Kirksville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 2, 20% October 9, 30% October 13, 40% October 16, 50% October 19, 60% October 22, 70% October 24, 80% October 27, 90% October 31. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2022 October 9, 2023 October 28, 2024 October 16, 2025 November 2.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 2Oct 19Oct 312022: October 92023: October 282024: October 162025: November 2
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021incomplete recordincomplete record
2022April 27October 9
2023April 25October 28
2024April 22October 16
2025incomplete recordNovember 2
2026April 8season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 5 is the cautious spring date for Kirksville, meaning there is only a 10 % chance of a light frost after that day and gardeners can plan to set out tender crops with minimal risk. The earlier date of April 7 carries a 90 % chance of a frost and is a gamble for delicate plants.

The median light-frost date, April 21, marks the point at which there is a 50 % chance of a frost later than this date, while the median hard-frost date, April 10, signals an even odds of a 28 °F freeze later than this date. In fall the cautious date is October 2, when there is a 10 % chance that a light frost has already arrived, allowing harvests of tender crops to be finished. The median light-frost date, October 19, and the median hard-frost date, October 29, each represent a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than this date.

A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue that survives a light frost at 32 °F, so it is a more critical threshold for garden planning.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 5" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 2" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Kirksville, MONumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Macon, MO — 32 mi; 2 — Bloomfield, IA — 38 mi; 3 — Steffenville, MO — 40 mi; 4 — Shelbina, MO — 46 mi; 5 — Keosauqua, IA — 48 mi.MOIL25 mi · 40 km1. near Macon, MO — 32 mi12. Bloomfield, IA — 38 mi23. Steffenville, MO — 40 mi34. Shelbina, MO — 46 mi45. Keosauqua, IA — 48 mi5
  1. near Macon, MO 32 mi (51 km)
  2. Bloomfield, IA 38 mi (61 km)
  3. Steffenville, MO 40 mi (64 km)
  4. Shelbina, MO 46 mi (74 km)
  5. Keosauqua, IA 48 mi (78 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 40.2058, -92.5747.