U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00414982 · Texas

Frost Dates for Lake Kemp, TX

NOAA weather station Lake Kemp (USC00414982), Texas · elevation 1167 ft (356 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 5only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season238 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lake Kemp, TXSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 20 in half of the years, after April 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 29 in 1 year out of 10, before November 13 in half of the years, before December 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 238 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 20First frost ~Nov 13Frost season at Lake Kemp, TXSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 20 in half of the years, after April 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 29 in 1 year out of 10, before November 13 in half of the years, before December 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 238 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 20First frost ~Nov 13
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 5October 29
50% (typical)March 20November 13
90% (likely)February 28December 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
238 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 7
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 26

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 20 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 13. Frost-free season 238 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lake Kemp: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 5, 20% March 31, 30% March 27, 40% March 23, 50% March 20, 60% March 16, 70% March 12, 80% March 7, 90% February 28. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 2, 2022 March 13, 2023 March 20, 2024 March 1, 2025 February 24, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 5Mar 20Feb 282021: March 22022: March 132023: March 202024: March 12025: February 242026: March 17Fall at Lake Kemp: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 29, 20% November 3, 30% November 7, 40% November 10, 50% November 13, 60% November 16, 70% November 20, 80% November 25, 90% December 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 19, 2022 November 12, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 28, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 29Nov 13Dec 12021: November 192022: November 122023: October 312024: November 282025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 2November 19
2022March 13November 12
2023March 20October 31
2024March 1November 28
2025February 24November 10
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

The cautious fall date in Lake Kemp for finishing the harvest is October 29, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has already arrived. Gardeners who follow a cautious schedule would wait until the light-frost cautious spring date of April 5 before setting out tender crops, because the risk of a frost later than that date is only 10 %.

The 50 % dates—March 20 for spring and November 13 for fall—mark the median point at which a light frost is equally likely to occur later (spring) or earlier (fall). Hard-frost median dates are March 7 in spring and November 26 in fall; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage or kill tender plants more readily than a light frost at 32 °F, so those dates signal a higher level of risk.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 5" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 29" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lake Kemp, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Wichita Falls, TX — 40 mi; 2 — Jacksboro, TX — 68 mi; 3 — Stamford, TX — 68 mi; 4 — Aspermont, TX — 75 mi; 5 — Childress, TX — 80 mi.TXOK50 mi · 80 km1. Wichita Falls, TX — 40 mi12. Jacksboro, TX — 68 mi23. Stamford, TX — 68 mi34. Aspermont, TX — 75 mi45. Childress, TX — 80 mi5
  1. Wichita Falls, TX 40 mi (65 km)
  2. Jacksboro, TX 68 mi (109 km)
  3. Stamford, TX 68 mi (109 km)
  4. Aspermont, TX 75 mi (121 km)
  5. Childress, TX 80 mi (129 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 33.7542, -99.1442.