U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00093820 · Kentucky

Frost Dates near Lexington, KY

NOAA weather station Lexington Bluegrass Airport (USW00093820), Kentucky · elevation 980 ft (299 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

Lexington is the nearest town to the station (7.8 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 1only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2850% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season196 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Lexington, KYSpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 13 in half of the years, after May 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 28 in half of the years, before November 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 196 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 13First frost ~Oct 28Frost season near Lexington, KYSpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 13 in half of the years, after May 1 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 28 in half of the years, before November 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 196 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 13First frost ~Oct 28
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 1October 16
50% (typical)April 13October 28
90% (likely)March 30November 8
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
196 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 31
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 6

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 12 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 29 (1 day later). Frost-free season 198 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Lexington: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 1, 20% April 25, 30% April 20, 40% April 16, 50% April 13, 60% April 9, 70% April 6, 80% April 2, 90% March 30. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 10, 2023 April 24, 2024 April 22, 2025 April 12, 2026 May 3.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 1Apr 13Mar 302021: April 232022: April 102023: April 242024: April 222025: April 122026: May 3Fall near Lexington: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 16, 20% October 20, 30% October 23, 40% October 25, 50% October 28, 60% October 30, 70% November 1, 80% November 4, 90% November 8. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 27, 2022 October 9, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 21, 2025 October 24.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 16Oct 28Nov 82021: October 272022: October 92023: October 312024: November 212025: October 24
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23October 27
2022April 10October 9
2023April 24October 31
2024April 22November 21
2025April 12October 24
2026May 3season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 196 days between the 50% dates in the Lexington area define the span when light frosts are equally likely to have occurred or not. The 50% date for light frost in spring is April 13, and the 50% date for light frost in fall is October 28; each marks the point of even odds for a frost but is not itself a frost date. The median hard-frost dates, when temperatures reach 28 °F, are March 31 in spring and November 6 in fall, providing a reference for the coldest part of the season.

For a cautious plan, tender crops should be set out after the May 1 spring date, which carries a 10 % chance of a frost later, and should be finished by the October 16 fall date, which has a 10 % chance of a frost earlier. Planting around March 30 or keeping crops until November 8 involves a 90 % chance of frost and is therefore a gamble. A hard frost (28 °F) can damage plants that survive a light frost (32 °F) because the lower temperature poses a greater threat to tender tissue.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 1" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 16" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lexington, KYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Cynthiana, KY — 28 mi; 2 — Bardstown, KY — 45 mi; 3 — near Shepherdsville, KY — 58 mi; 4 — near Morehead, KY — 59 mi; 5 — Louisville, KY — 62 mi.IN25 mi · 40 km1. Cynthiana, KY — 28 mi12. Bardstown, KY — 45 mi23. near Shepherdsville, KY — 58 mi34. near Morehead, KY — 59 mi45. Louisville, KY — 62 mi5
  1. Cynthiana, KY 28 mi (46 km)
  2. Bardstown, KY 45 mi (73 km)
  3. near Shepherdsville, KY 58 mi (93 km)
  4. near Morehead, KY 59 mi (94 km)
  5. Louisville, KY 62 mi (100 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 38.0408, -84.6058.