U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00013721 · Maryland

Frost Dates near Lexington Park, MD

NOAA weather station Patuxent River NAS (USW00013721), Maryland · elevation 39 ft (12 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

Lexington Park is the nearest town to the station (3.0 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 10only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season230 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Lexington Park, MDSpring: a frost after March 15 in 9 years out of 10, after March 29 in half of the years, after April 10 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 1 in 1 year out of 10, before November 15 in half of the years, before December 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 230 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 29First frost ~Nov 15Frost season near Lexington Park, MDSpring: a frost after March 15 in 9 years out of 10, after March 29 in half of the years, after April 10 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 1 in 1 year out of 10, before November 15 in half of the years, before December 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 230 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 29First frost ~Nov 15
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 10November 1
50% (typical)March 29November 15
90% (likely)March 15December 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
230 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 18
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 29

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 31 (2 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 14 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 229 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Lexington Park: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 10, 20% April 5, 30% April 3, 40% April 1, 50% March 29, 60% March 27, 70% March 24, 80% March 21, 90% March 15. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 21, 2022 March 30, 2023 March 21, 2024 March 22, 2026 March 29.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 10Mar 29Mar 152021: March 212022: March 302023: March 212024: March 222026: March 29Fall near Lexington Park: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 1, 20% November 5, 30% November 8, 40% November 12, 50% November 15, 60% November 18, 70% November 22, 80% November 27, 90% December 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 20, 2022 November 17, 2023 November 13, 2024 November 30, 2025 November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Nov 1Nov 15Dec 12021: November 202022: November 172023: November 132024: November 302025: November 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 21November 20
2022March 30November 17
2023March 21November 13
2024March 22November 30
2025incomplete recordNovember 11
2026March 29season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 10 marks the cautious spring date for the Lexington Park area; with only a 10 % chance of a light frost after that day, a gardener can plan to set out tender crops with relatively low risk. By contrast, March 15 carries a 90 % chance of frost and is considered a gamble, while the median 50 % date, March 29, simply indicates an even odds point for a frost occurring later.

The 50 % dates—March 29 in spring and November 15 in fall—mean that a light frost is equally likely to appear after or before those days, giving a clear reference for risk assessment. The cautious fall date is November 1, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived, allowing the final harvesting of tender crops. The hard-frost median dates are March 18 and November 29; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue that would survive a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 10" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 1" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lexington Park, MDNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Mechanicsville, MD — 21 mi; 2 — Warsaw, VA — 29 mi; 3 — Royal Oak, MD — 31 mi; 4 — near Salisbury, MD — 49 mi; 5 — near Arlington, VA — 50 mi.MDVADE25 mi · 40 km1. Mechanicsville, MD — 21 mi12. Warsaw, VA — 29 mi23. Royal Oak, MD — 31 mi34. near Salisbury, MD — 49 mi45. near Arlington, VA — 50 mi5
  1. Mechanicsville, MD 21 mi (34 km)
  2. Warsaw, VA 29 mi (47 km)
  3. Royal Oak, MD 31 mi (50 km)
  4. near Salisbury, MD 49 mi (79 km)
  5. near Arlington, VA 50 mi (81 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 38.3, -76.4167.