U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00304912 · New York

Frost Dates for Lowville, NY

NOAA weather station Lowville (USC00304912), New York · elevation 863 ft (263 m) · hardiness zone 4b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 23only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season145 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone4bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Lowville, NYSpring: a frost after April 26 in 9 years out of 10, after May 8 in half of the years, after May 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 19 in 1 year out of 10, before October 1 in half of the years, before October 17 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 145 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 8First frost ~Oct 1Frost season at Lowville, NYSpring: a frost after April 26 in 9 years out of 10, after May 8 in half of the years, after May 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 19 in 1 year out of 10, before October 1 in half of the years, before October 17 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 145 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 8First frost ~Oct 1
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 23September 19
50% (typical)May 8October 1
90% (likely)April 26October 17
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
145 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 28
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 15

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 6 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 6 (5 days later). Frost-free season 151 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Lowville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 23, 20% May 19, 30% May 15, 40% May 11, 50% May 8, 60% May 6, 70% May 3, 80% April 30, 90% April 26. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 13, 2022 May 8, 2023 May 19, 2024 April 27, 2025 April 23, 2026 May 12.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 23May 8Apr 262021: May 132022: May 82023: May 192024: April 272025: April 232026: May 12Fall at Lowville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 19, 20% September 23, 30% September 26, 40% September 29, 50% October 1, 60% October 4, 70% October 7, 80% October 11, 90% October 17. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 24, 2022 October 3, 2023 October 31, 2024 October 11, 2025 October 2.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 19Oct 1Oct 172021: October 242022: October 32023: October 312024: October 112025: October 2
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 13October 24
2022May 8October 3
2023May 19October 31
2024April 27October 11
2025April 23October 2
2026May 12season not over yet

What these dates mean

September 19 marks the cautious fall date for finishing the harvest in Lowville; there is a ten percent chance that a light frost has arrived before that day, so placing tender crops out for harvest after this date keeps low. In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is May 23, when the chance of a light frost later than that day is ten percent; planting earlier, such as on April 26, carries a ninety percent chance of frost and is a gamble.

The median, or fifty-percent, dates are May 8 for spring and October 1 for fall. These dates mark the point where the chance of a light frost is even, but they are not frost dates; a gardener can use them as a reference when risk is balanced. The hard-frost median dates are April 28 in spring and October 15 in fall, and a hard frost of twenty-eight degrees can damage plants more severely than a light frost of thirty-two degrees. The interval between the two fifty-percent dates spans 145 days, giving a measure of the frost-free season.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 23" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 19" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Lowville, NYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Watertown, NY — 23 mi; 2 — Boonville, NY — 25 mi; 3 — Watertown (Airport), NY — 30 mi; 4 — Gouverneur, NY — 39 mi; 5 — near Syracuse, NY — 56 mi.NY25 mi · 40 km1. Watertown, NY — 23 mi12. Boonville, NY — 25 mi23. Watertown (Airport), NY — 30 mi34. Gouverneur, NY — 39 mi45. near Syracuse, NY — 56 mi5
  1. Watertown, NY 23 mi (37 km)
  2. Boonville, NY 25 mi (41 km)
  3. Watertown (Airport), NY 30 mi (49 km)
  4. Gouverneur, NY 39 mi (62 km)
  5. near Syracuse, NY 56 mi (91 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 4b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 43.7928, -75.4828.