U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00235227 · Missouri

Frost Dates for Mansfield, MO

NOAA weather station Mansfield (USC00235227), Missouri · elevation 1448 ft (441 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 28only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season197 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Mansfield, MOSpring: a frost after March 26 in 9 years out of 10, after April 11 in half of the years, after April 28 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 12 in 1 year out of 10, before October 26 in half of the years, before November 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 197 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 11First frost ~Oct 26Frost season at Mansfield, MOSpring: a frost after March 26 in 9 years out of 10, after April 11 in half of the years, after April 28 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 12 in 1 year out of 10, before October 26 in half of the years, before November 8 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 197 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 11First frost ~Oct 26
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 28October 12
50% (typical)April 11October 26
90% (likely)March 26November 8
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
197 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 31
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 4

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 9 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 27 (1 day later). Frost-free season 199 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Mansfield: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 28, 20% April 22, 30% April 17, 40% April 14, 50% April 11, 60% April 8, 70% April 4, 80% March 31, 90% March 26. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 19, 2023 April 23.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 28Apr 11Mar 262021: April 232022: April 192023: April 23Fall at Mansfield: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 12, 20% October 17, 30% October 21, 40% October 23, 50% October 26, 60% October 28, 70% October 31, 80% November 3, 90% November 8. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 30.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 12Oct 26Nov 82021: November 32022: October 182023: October 30
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 3
2022April 19October 18
2023April 23October 30
2024incomplete recordno data
2025no datano data
2026no dataseason not over yet

What these dates mean

April 28 is the cautious spring date for Mansfield, carrying only a 10 % chance that a light frost will occur later, so a gardener can set out tender crops with relatively low risk.

The 50% date in spring is April 11, meaning a 50 % chance of a light frost later than this date, while the 50% date in fall is October 26, meaning a 50 % chance of a light frost earlier than this date. For a cautious fall plan the date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 12, which has only a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier. The 50% hard-frost dates are March 31 and November 4.

Hard frost at 28 °F can injure plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F, making the 28 °F threshold a more critical limit for tender crops.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 28" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 12" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Mansfield, MONumbered nearest stations: 1 — Mountain Grove, MO — 18 mi; 2 — Marshfield, MO — 27 mi; 3 — Lebanon, MO — 40 mi; 4 — Ozark Beach, MO — 42 mi; 5 — Springfield, MO — 46 mi.AR25 mi · 40 km1. Mountain Grove, MO — 18 mi12. Marshfield, MO — 27 mi23. Lebanon, MO — 40 mi34. Ozark Beach, MO — 42 mi45. Springfield, MO — 46 mi5
  1. Mountain Grove, MO 18 mi (29 km)
  2. Marshfield, MO 27 mi (43 km)
  3. Lebanon, MO 40 mi (65 km)
  4. Ozark Beach, MO 42 mi (67 km)
  5. Springfield, MO 46 mi (74 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 37.1086, -92.5789.