U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00405882 · Tennessee

Frost Dates for McMinnville, TN

NOAA weather station McMinnville (USC00405882), Tennessee · elevation 940 ft (287 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 23only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 3050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season203 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at McMinnville, TNSpring: a frost after March 20 in 9 years out of 10, after April 7 in half of the years, after April 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 10 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 203 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 7First frost ~Oct 30Frost season at McMinnville, TNSpring: a frost after March 20 in 9 years out of 10, after April 7 in half of the years, after April 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 16 in 1 year out of 10, before October 30 in half of the years, before November 10 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 203 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 7First frost ~Oct 30
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 23October 16
50% (typical)April 7October 30
90% (likely)March 20November 10
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
203 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 27
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 7

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 5 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 31 (1 day later). Frost-free season 208 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at McMinnville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 23, 20% April 18, 30% April 14, 40% April 10, 50% April 7, 60% April 4, 70% March 31, 80% March 27, 90% March 20. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 19, 2023 April 24, 2024 April 6, 2025 April 9, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 23Apr 7Mar 202021: April 222022: April 192023: April 242024: April 62025: April 92026: March 18Fall at McMinnville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 16, 20% October 21, 30% October 24, 40% October 27, 50% October 30, 60% November 1, 70% November 3, 80% November 5, 90% November 10. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 9, 2023 November 1, 2024 October 16, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 16Oct 30Nov 102021: November 52022: October 92023: November 12024: October 162025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 5
2022April 19October 9
2023April 24November 1
2024April 6October 16
2025April 9November 10
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 16 is the cautious fall date for finishing the harvest in McMinnville; there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier. Gardeners planning the end of the season aim for this date when tender crops are still likely to survive.

In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is April 23, which carries a 10 % chance of a light frost later. The 50 % date, April 7, marks the median point where odds of a frost are even, while March 20 represents a 90 % chance of frost later and should be treated as a gamble. For the autumn window the 50 % date is October 30, and November 10 carries a 90 % chance of frost earlier, making it a risky choice. The hard-frost median dates are March 27 in spring and November 7 in fall; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F because it reaches temperatures low enough to freeze plant tissue.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 23" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 16" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near McMinnville, TNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Smithville, TN — 19 mi; 2 — Woodbury, TN — 21 mi; 3 — near Sparta, TN — 24 mi; 4 — Monteagle, TN — 31 mi; 5 — Tullahoma, TN — 33 mi.GA25 mi · 40 km1. Smithville, TN — 19 mi12. Woodbury, TN — 21 mi23. near Sparta, TN — 24 mi34. Monteagle, TN — 31 mi45. Tullahoma, TN — 33 mi5
  1. Smithville, TN 19 mi (30 km)
  2. Woodbury, TN 21 mi (33 km)
  3. near Sparta, TN 24 mi (38 km)
  4. Monteagle, TN 31 mi (50 km)
  5. Tullahoma, TN 33 mi (53 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.6722, -85.7811.