U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00415821 · Texas

Frost Dates for Memphis, TX

NOAA weather station Memphis (USC00415821), Texas · elevation 2090 ft (637 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 18only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season215 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Memphis, TXSpring: a frost after March 13 in 9 years out of 10, after April 1 in half of the years, after April 18 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 21 in 1 year out of 10, before November 3 in half of the years, before November 17 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 215 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 1First frost ~Nov 3Frost season at Memphis, TXSpring: a frost after March 13 in 9 years out of 10, after April 1 in half of the years, after April 18 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 21 in 1 year out of 10, before November 3 in half of the years, before November 17 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 215 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 1First frost ~Nov 3
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 18October 21
50% (typical)April 1November 3
90% (likely)March 13November 17
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
215 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 17
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 12

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 4 (3 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 5 (2 days later). Frost-free season 213 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Memphis: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 18, 20% April 12, 30% April 7, 40% April 4, 50% April 1, 60% March 30, 70% March 24, 80% March 19, 90% March 13. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 March 20, 2023 March 29, 2024 March 29, 2025 April 7, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1May 1Apr 18Apr 1Mar 132021: April 222022: March 202023: March 292024: March 292025: April 72026: March 18Fall at Memphis: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 21, 20% October 26, 30% October 30, 40% November 1, 50% November 3, 60% November 6, 70% November 8, 80% November 12, 90% November 17. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 18, 2022 November 12, 2023 October 29, 2024 November 26, 2025 October 30.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 21Nov 3Nov 172021: November 182022: November 122023: October 292024: November 262025: October 30
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 18
2022March 20November 12
2023March 29October 29
2024March 29November 26
2025April 7October 30
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 215 days between the 32°F 50% dates — April 1 and November 3 — frame the interval in which a light frost is less likely than not. For a gardener this means there is a 50 % chance of a frost occurring after April 1 in spring and a 50 % chance of a frost occurring before November 3 in fall, based on thirty years of records.

The cautious spring date for setting out tender crops is April 18, when only a 10 % chance of a later frost remains; the cautious fall date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 21, with only a 10 % chance that a frost has arrived earlier. The median hard-frost dates are March 17 and November 12, and a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that would survive a 32 °F light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 18" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 21" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Memphis, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Wellington, TX — 20 mi; 2 — Childress, TX — 25 mi; 3 — Turkey, TX — 31 mi; 4 — near Shamrock, TX — 37 mi; 5 — Silverton, TX — 47 mi.TXOK25 mi · 40 km1. Wellington, TX — 20 mi12. Childress, TX — 25 mi23. Turkey, TX — 31 mi34. near Shamrock, TX — 37 mi45. Silverton, TX — 47 mi5
  1. Wellington, TX 20 mi (33 km)
  2. Childress, TX 25 mi (41 km)
  3. Turkey, TX 31 mi (49 km)
  4. near Shamrock, TX 37 mi (60 km)
  5. Silverton, TX 47 mi (75 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.7261, -100.5372.