U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00053919 · Arkansas

Frost Dates for Monticello, AR

NOAA weather station Monticello Municipal Airport (USW00053919), Arkansas · elevation 290 ft (88 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 6only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season238 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Monticello, ARSpring: a frost after February 26 in 9 years out of 10, after March 18 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 28 in 1 year out of 10, before November 12 in half of the years, before December 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 238 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 18First frost ~Nov 12Frost season at Monticello, ARSpring: a frost after February 26 in 9 years out of 10, after March 18 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 28 in 1 year out of 10, before November 12 in half of the years, before December 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 238 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 18First frost ~Nov 12
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 6October 28
50% (typical)March 18November 12
90% (likely)February 26December 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
238 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 4
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 25

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 15 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 13 (1 day later). Frost-free season 242 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Monticello: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 6, 20% March 31, 30% March 26, 40% March 22, 50% March 18, 60% March 14, 70% March 10, 80% March 5, 90% February 26. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 2, 2022 March 13, 2023 March 20, 2024 March 19, 2025 March 6, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 6Mar 18Feb 262021: April 22022: March 132023: March 202024: March 192025: March 62026: March 17Fall at Monticello: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 28, 20% November 1, 30% November 5, 40% November 8, 50% November 12, 60% November 15, 70% November 20, 80% November 24, 90% December 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 19, 2023 November 1, 2024 November 29, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 28Nov 12Dec 12021: November 52022: October 192023: November 12024: November 292025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 2November 5
2022March 13October 19
2023March 20November 1
2024March 19November 29
2025March 6November 10
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on the early spring date of February 26 carries a 90% chance of a frost later than that day, making it a gamble for Monticello gardeners. The cautious alternative is the April 6 date, which has only a 10% chance of a later frost and is therefore the recommended day to place tender seedlings outdoors.

The 50% date is March 18, indicating a 50% chance of a frost later than this date, while the 50% date is November 12, indicating a 50% chance of a frost earlier than this date; these points frame the middle of the light-frost risk period. For the fall season, the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 28, when there is only a 10% chance that a frost has arrived earlier. Hard-frost dates fall on March 4 in spring and November 25 in fall, and a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 6" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 28" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Monticello, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Dermott, AR — 22 mi; 2 — Rohwer, AR — 30 mi; 3 — Portland, AR — 30 mi; 4 — Arkansas Post, AR — 36 mi; 5 — Crossett, AR — 38 mi.ARMS25 mi · 40 km1. Dermott, AR — 22 mi12. Rohwer, AR — 30 mi23. Portland, AR — 30 mi34. Arkansas Post, AR — 36 mi45. Crossett, AR — 38 mi5
  1. Dermott, AR 22 mi (35 km)
  2. Rohwer, AR 30 mi (48 km)
  3. Portland, AR 30 mi (49 km)
  4. Arkansas Post, AR 36 mi (58 km)
  5. Crossett, AR 38 mi (61 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 33.6361, -91.7556.