U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00295937 · New Mexico

Frost Dates for Mosquero, NM

NOAA weather station Mosquero 1 NE (USC00295937), New Mexico · elevation 5465 ft (1666 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 17only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season160 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Mosquero, NMSpring: a frost after April 21 in 9 years out of 10, after May 3 in half of the years, after May 17 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 12 in half of the years, before October 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 160 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 3First frost ~Oct 12Frost season at Mosquero, NMSpring: a frost after April 21 in 9 years out of 10, after May 3 in half of the years, after May 17 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 12 in half of the years, before October 24 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 160 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 3First frost ~Oct 12
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 17October 1
50% (typical)May 3October 12
90% (likely)April 21October 24
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
160 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 24
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 20

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 5 (2 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 15 (3 days later). Frost-free season 162 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Mosquero: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 17, 20% May 12, 30% May 9, 40% May 6, 50% May 3, 60% May 1, 70% April 29, 80% April 25, 90% April 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1May 17May 3Apr 21Fall at Mosquero: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 1, 20% October 4, 30% October 7, 40% October 10, 50% October 12, 60% October 14, 70% October 17, 80% October 19, 90% October 24.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 1Oct 12Oct 24
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there.

What these dates mean

The 160 days between the 50% dates in Mosquero frame the window when tender crops can be grown. The 50% dates are May 3 for spring and October 12 for fall; they are median points, not frost dates, and simply mark the middle of the historical range.

A cautious plan would wait until May 17 to set out tender crops in spring, because only a 10% chance of a light frost remains later, and would aim to finish harvesting by October 1 in fall, when there is only a 10% chance a light frost has arrived earlier. A hard frost at 28 °F can injure plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F, so the median hard-frost dates of April 24 and October 20 indicate when that greater danger becomes likely.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 17" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 1" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Mosquero, NMNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Conchas Dam, NM — 31 mi; 2 — Amistad, NM — 43 mi; 3 — Tucumcari, NM — 44 mi; 4 — Grenville, NM — 58 mi; 5 — San Jon, NM — 59 mi.NMTXOK50 mi · 80 km1. Conchas Dam, NM — 31 mi12. Amistad, NM — 43 mi23. Tucumcari, NM — 44 mi34. Grenville, NM — 58 mi45. San Jon, NM — 59 mi5
  1. Conchas Dam, NM 31 mi (49 km)
  2. Amistad, NM 43 mi (69 km)
  3. Tucumcari, NM 44 mi (71 km)
  4. Grenville, NM 58 mi (93 km)
  5. San Jon, NM 59 mi (95 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.8022, -103.9439.