U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00416104 · Texas

Frost Dates for Mount Locke, TX

NOAA weather station Mount Locke (USC00416104), Texas · elevation 6790 ft (2070 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 3only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season194 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Mount Locke, TXSpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 16 in half of the years, after May 3 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 12 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 194 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 16First frost ~Oct 29Frost season at Mount Locke, TXSpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 16 in half of the years, after May 3 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 12 in 1 year out of 10, before October 29 in half of the years, before November 14 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 194 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 16First frost ~Oct 29
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 3October 12
50% (typical)April 16October 29
90% (likely)March 30November 14
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
194 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 3
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 6

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 18 (2 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 1 (3 days later). Frost-free season 195 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Mount Locke: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 3, 20% April 28, 30% April 23, 40% April 19, 50% April 16, 60% April 11, 70% April 8, 80% April 4, 90% March 30. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 March 31, 2023 April 24, 2024 April 10, 2025 April 7, 2026 April 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 3Apr 16Mar 302021: April 222022: March 312023: April 242024: April 102025: April 72026: April 18Fall at Mount Locke: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 12, 20% October 17, 30% October 21, 40% October 25, 50% October 29, 60% November 1, 70% November 4, 80% November 9, 90% November 14. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 18, 2022 October 28, 2023 October 30, 2024 November 18, 2025 October 29.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 12Oct 29Nov 142021: November 182022: October 282023: October 302024: November 182025: October 29
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 18
2022March 31October 28
2023April 24October 30
2024April 10November 18
2025April 7October 29
2026April 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 3 is the cautious light-frost date for spring at Mount Locke; with only a 10 % chance of a frost later, a gardener can safely set out tender crops after that day.

The median light-frost dates are April 16 in spring and October 29 in fall; at each of these dates there is a 50 % chance of a light frost later (spring) or earlier (fall). For a conservative schedule the cautious spring date is May 3 and the cautious fall date is October 12, each carrying only a 10 % chance of a frost beyond the indicated direction. The 50 % hard-frost dates are April 3 for spring and November 6 for fall, marking the point where a 28 °F frost is equally likely to have occurred.

A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue that survives a 32 °F light frost, making it a more serious threat.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 3" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 12" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Mount Locke, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Van Horn, TX — 54 mi; 2 — near Wink, TX — 89 mi; 3 — Lajitas, TX — 100 mi; 4 — Chisos Basin, TX — 108 mi; 5 — McCamey, TX — 111 mi.TX50 mi · 80 km1. Van Horn, TX — 54 mi12. near Wink, TX — 89 mi23. Lajitas, TX — 100 mi34. Chisos Basin, TX — 108 mi45. McCamey, TX — 111 mi5
  1. Van Horn, TX 54 mi (86 km)
  2. near Wink, TX 89 mi (143 km)
  3. Lajitas, TX 100 mi (162 km)
  4. Chisos Basin, TX 108 mi (174 km)
  5. McCamey, TX 111 mi (178 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 30.7053, -104.0233.