U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00416135 · Texas

Frost Dates near Muleshoe, TX

NOAA weather station Muleshoe #1 (USC00416135), Texas · elevation 3830 ft (1167 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

Muleshoe is the nearest town to the station (0.7 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 4only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season180 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Muleshoe, TXSpring: a frost after April 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 22 in half of the years, after May 4 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 7 in 1 year out of 10, before October 20 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 180 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 22First frost ~Oct 20Frost season near Muleshoe, TXSpring: a frost after April 9 in 9 years out of 10, after April 22 in half of the years, after May 4 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 7 in 1 year out of 10, before October 20 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 180 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 22First frost ~Oct 20
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 4October 7
50% (typical)April 22October 20
90% (likely)April 9November 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
180 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 12
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 28

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 27 (5 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 20. Frost-free season 176 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Muleshoe: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 4, 20% April 30, 30% April 28, 40% April 24, 50% April 22, 60% April 21, 70% April 18, 80% April 15, 90% April 9. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 15, 2023 April 29, 2024 April 4, 2025 April 7, 2026 April 19.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 4Apr 22Apr 92021: April 222022: April 152023: April 292024: April 42025: April 72026: April 19Fall near Muleshoe: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 7, 20% October 11, 30% October 15, 40% October 17, 50% October 20, 60% October 22, 70% October 25, 80% October 28, 90% November 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 16, 2022 October 25, 2023 October 14, 2024 October 31, 2025 October 29.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 7Oct 20Nov 12021: October 162022: October 252023: October 142024: October 312025: October 29
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22October 16
2022April 15October 25
2023April 29October 14
2024April 4October 31
2025April 7October 29
2026April 19season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 7 marks the cautious fall date for finishing the harvest of tender crops in the Muleshoe area, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived. The median light-frost date of October 20 indicates an even-odds point, while November 1 carries a 90 % chance of a frost already occurring, making planting past that date a gamble.

April 22 is the 50 % light-frost date in spring, offering a reference point for garden planning. For a low-risk start, May 4 is the cautious date with just a 10 % chance of a frost later; planting earlier on April 9 involves a 90 % chance of frost and is risky.

Hard frost at 28 °F, with median dates of April 12 and October 28, can injure plants more severely than the light-frost threshold of 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 4" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 7" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Muleshoe, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Friona, TX — 29 mi; 2 — Morton, TX — 35 mi; 3 — Dimmitt, TX — 35 mi; 4 — Portales, NM — 36 mi; 5 — Littlefield, TX — 36 mi.TXNM25 mi · 40 km1. Friona, TX — 29 mi12. Morton, TX — 35 mi23. Dimmitt, TX — 35 mi34. Portales, NM — 36 mi45. Littlefield, TX — 36 mi5
  1. Friona, TX 29 mi (47 km)
  2. Morton, TX 35 mi (56 km)
  3. Dimmitt, TX 35 mi (56 km)
  4. Portales, NM 36 mi (57 km)
  5. Littlefield, TX 36 mi (58 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.2192, -102.7328.