U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00013896 · Alabama

Frost Dates for Muscle Shoals, AL

NOAA weather station Muscle Shoals Regional Airport (USW00013896), Alabama · elevation 540 ft (165 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 6only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2050% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 850% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season233 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Muscle Shoals, ALSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 20 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 25 in 1 year out of 10, before November 8 in half of the years, before November 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 233 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 20First frost ~Nov 8Frost season at Muscle Shoals, ALSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 20 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 25 in 1 year out of 10, before November 8 in half of the years, before November 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 233 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 20First frost ~Nov 8
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 6October 25
50% (typical)March 20November 8
90% (likely)February 28November 26
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
233 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 6
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 20

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 17 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 5 (3 days earlier). Frost-free season 232 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Muscle Shoals: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 6, 20% April 1, 30% March 28, 40% March 24, 50% March 20, 60% March 16, 70% March 13, 80% March 8, 90% February 28. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 8, 2022 March 13, 2023 March 21, 2024 March 19, 2025 March 21, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 6Mar 20Feb 282021: March 82022: March 132023: March 212024: March 192025: March 212026: March 17Fall at Muscle Shoals: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 25, 20% October 31, 30% November 2, 40% November 5, 50% November 8, 60% November 11, 70% November 15, 80% November 19, 90% November 26. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 13, 2022 October 19, 2023 November 1, 2024 November 23, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 25Nov 8Nov 262021: November 132022: October 192023: November 12024: November 232025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 8November 13
2022March 13October 19
2023March 21November 1
2024March 19November 23
2025March 21November 10
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 25 marks the cautious fall date for finishing the harvest of tender crops in Muscle Shoals, carrying only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier. In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is April 6, when there is a 10 % chance of a frost later; planting on February 28 would be a gamble with a 90 % chance of frost later.

The 50 % dates—March 20 for the spring light-frost window and November 8 for the fall—represent the median point where a light frost is equally likely to occur before or after the date. Gardeners can use these reference points to gauge the central tendency of the 32 °F frost risk over the 26-year record, which yields a frost-free interval of 233 days between the two 32 °F 50 % dates.

A hard frost at 28 °F is more damaging than a light frost because it can kill plant tissue that survives the milder 32 °F threshold, and the median hard-frost dates are March 6 in spring and November 20 in fall.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 6" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 25" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Muscle Shoals, ALNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Haleyville, AL — 35 mi; 2 — Athens, AL — 37 mi; 3 — Waynesboro, TN — 40 mi; 4 — Belle Mina, AL — 41 mi; 5 — Pulaski, TN — 44 mi.ALTNMS25 mi · 40 km1. Haleyville, AL — 35 mi12. Athens, AL — 37 mi23. Waynesboro, TN — 40 mi34. Belle Mina, AL — 41 mi45. Pulaski, TN — 44 mi5
  1. Haleyville, AL 35 mi (57 km)
  2. Athens, AL 37 mi (59 km)
  3. Waynesboro, TN 40 mi (64 km)
  4. Belle Mina, AL 41 mi (66 km)
  5. Pulaski, TN 44 mi (71 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.7442, -87.5997.