U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00416177 · Texas

Frost Dates for Nacogdoches, TX

NOAA weather station Nacogdoches (USC00416177), Texas · elevation 435 ft (133 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 6only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season248 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Nacogdoches, TXSpring: a frost after February 21 in 9 years out of 10, after March 13 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 1 in 1 year out of 10, before November 17 in half of the years, before December 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 248 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 13First frost ~Nov 17Frost season at Nacogdoches, TXSpring: a frost after February 21 in 9 years out of 10, after March 13 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before November 1 in 1 year out of 10, before November 17 in half of the years, before December 5 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 248 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 13First frost ~Nov 17
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 6November 1
50% (typical)March 13November 17
90% (likely)February 21December 5
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
248 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
February 28
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
December 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 6 (7 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 22 (5 days later). Frost-free season 258 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Nacogdoches: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 6, 20% March 31, 30% March 23, 40% March 18, 50% March 13, 60% March 9, 70% March 5, 80% February 28, 90% February 21. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 February 19, 2022 March 24, 2023 March 19, 2025 March 22, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 6Mar 13Feb 212021: February 192022: March 242023: March 192025: March 222026: March 18Fall at Nacogdoches: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% November 1, 20% November 5, 30% November 10, 40% November 13, 50% November 17, 60% November 21, 70% November 25, 80% December 1, 90% December 5. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 December 12, 2022 November 12, 2023 November 2.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Nov 1Nov 17Dec 52021: December 122022: November 122023: November 2
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021February 19December 12
2022March 24November 12
2023March 19November 2
2024incomplete recordincomplete record
2025March 22incomplete record
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on February 21 in Nacogdoches carries a 90% chance of a frost later that day, so planting then is a gamble. The cautious spring date for tender crops is April 6, when only 10% of the record years experienced a frost later.

The cautious fall date to finish harvesting tender crops is November 1, with a 10% chance that a frost arrived earlier. For a gardener, the 50% light-frost dates are March 13 and November 17; on each of those days the historical record shows an even chance of a frost occurring later (spring) or earlier (fall). The 50% hard-frost dates are February 28 and December 1, marking the median points for temperatures dropping to 28 °F.

A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F, so the hard-frost dates are more critical for protecting tender crops.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 6" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before November 1" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Nacogdoches, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Lufkin, TX — 27 mi; 2 — Center, TX — 31 mi; 3 — Rusk, TX — 32 mi; 4 — Henderson, TX — 40 mi; 5 — Carthage, TX — 42 mi.LA25 mi · 40 km1. Lufkin, TX — 27 mi12. Center, TX — 31 mi23. Rusk, TX — 32 mi34. Henderson, TX — 40 mi45. Carthage, TX — 42 mi5
  1. Lufkin, TX 27 mi (44 km)
  2. Center, TX 31 mi (50 km)
  3. Rusk, TX 32 mi (52 km)
  4. Henderson, TX 40 mi (64 km)
  5. Carthage, TX 42 mi (67 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 31.6164, -94.6431.