U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00013897 · Tennessee

Frost Dates for Nashville, TN

NOAA weather station Nashville International Airport (USW00013897), Tennessee · elevation 600 ft (183 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 16only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 3150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 350% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season217 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Nashville, TNSpring: a frost after March 13 in 9 years out of 10, after March 31 in half of the years, after April 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 22 in 1 year out of 10, before November 3 in half of the years, before November 18 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 217 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 31First frost ~Nov 3Frost season at Nashville, TNSpring: a frost after March 13 in 9 years out of 10, after March 31 in half of the years, after April 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 22 in 1 year out of 10, before November 3 in half of the years, before November 18 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 217 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 31First frost ~Nov 3
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 16October 22
50% (typical)March 31November 3
90% (likely)March 13November 18
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
217 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 17
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 15

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 31 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 3. Frost-free season 218 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Nashville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 16, 20% April 9, 30% April 6, 40% April 3, 50% March 31, 60% March 28, 70% March 24, 80% March 18, 90% March 13. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 3, 2022 March 13, 2023 March 21, 2024 March 19, 2025 March 21, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 16Mar 31Mar 132021: April 32022: March 132023: March 212024: March 192025: March 212026: March 17Fall at Nashville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 22, 20% October 26, 30% October 30, 40% November 1, 50% November 3, 60% November 6, 70% November 9, 80% November 13, 90% November 18. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 November 12, 2023 November 1, 2024 November 29, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 22Nov 3Nov 182021: November 42022: November 122023: November 12024: November 292025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 3November 4
2022March 13November 12
2023March 21November 1
2024March 19November 29
2025March 21November 10
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 217 days between the 50% light-frost dates in Nashville frame the period when most tender plants can be grown without a high risk of frost. The 50% light-frost dates are March 31 in spring and November 3 in fall; each marks an even-odds point for a frost to occur, so a gardener knows that roughly half of the years see frost before or after those days.

For a cautious plan, the spring cautious date is April 16, which carries only a 10 % chance of a later frost, while the fall cautious date is October 22, which also carries only a 10 % chance of an earlier frost. A hard frost at 28°F, with median dates of March 17 and November 15, can injure plants that would normally survive a light frost at 32°F. These dates derive from 26 years of NOAA records, giving a data-based window for scheduling planting and harvest.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 16" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 22" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Nashville, TNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Green Hill, TN — 11 mi; 2 — Murfreesboro, TN — 22 mi; 3 — Kingston Springs, TN — 24 mi; 4 — Springfield, TN — 26 mi; 5 — Portland, TN — 34 mi.KY25 mi · 40 km1. near Green Hill, TN — 11 mi12. Murfreesboro, TN — 22 mi23. Kingston Springs, TN — 24 mi34. Springfield, TN — 26 mi45. Portland, TN — 34 mi5
  1. near Green Hill, TN 11 mi (18 km)
  2. Murfreesboro, TN 22 mi (36 km)
  3. Kingston Springs, TN 24 mi (38 km)
  4. Springfield, TN 26 mi (41 km)
  5. Portland, TN 34 mi (54 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.1189, -86.6892.