U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00226177 · Mississippi

Frost Dates for Natchez, MS

NOAA weather station Natchez (USC00226177), Mississippi · elevation 195 ft (59 m) · hardiness zone 8b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 6only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 1650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season237 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Natchez, MSSpring: a frost after February 25 in 9 years out of 10, after March 16 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 27 in 1 year out of 10, before November 9 in half of the years, before November 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 237 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 16First frost ~Nov 9Frost season at Natchez, MSSpring: a frost after February 25 in 9 years out of 10, after March 16 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 27 in 1 year out of 10, before November 9 in half of the years, before November 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 237 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 16First frost ~Nov 9
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 6October 27
50% (typical)March 16November 9
90% (likely)February 25November 27
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
237 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 1
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 22

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 17 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 9. Frost-free season 239 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Natchez: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 6, 20% April 1, 30% March 26, 40% March 21, 50% March 16, 60% March 12, 70% March 8, 80% March 2, 90% February 25. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 8, 2024 March 20.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 6Mar 16Feb 252021: March 82024: March 20Fall at Natchez: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 27, 20% November 1, 30% November 3, 40% November 6, 50% November 9, 60% November 12, 70% November 16, 80% November 20, 90% November 27. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 14, 2023 October 18, 2024 November 30.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 27Nov 9Nov 272021: November 142023: October 182024: November 30
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 8November 14
2022incomplete recordincomplete record
2023incomplete recordOctober 18
2024March 20November 30
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

The cautious fall date in Natchez for finishing the harvest is October 27, when there is only a 10% chance that a light frost has arrived earlier.

The 50% light-frost dates are March 16 in spring and November 9 in fall; each marks the point at which a light frost is equally likely to occur later (spring) or earlier (fall). The median hard-frost dates are March 1 and November 22, and a hard frost can damage plants more severely than a light frost.

A cautious plan for tender crops uses the April 6 spring date, which carries a 10% chance of a later frost, and the October 27 fall date, which carries a 10% chance of an earlier frost; planting on February 25 or staying out until November 27 involves a 90% chance of frost and is a gamble.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 6" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 27" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Natchez, MSNumbered nearest stations: 1 — St. Joseph, LA — 26 mi; 2 — near Jonesville, LA — 32 mi; 3 — Winnsboro, LA — 41 mi; 4 — Jena, LA — 47 mi; 5 — near Brookhaven, MS — 52 mi.MSLA25 mi · 40 km1. St. Joseph, LA — 26 mi12. near Jonesville, LA — 32 mi23. Winnsboro, LA — 41 mi34. Jena, LA — 47 mi45. near Brookhaven, MS — 52 mi5
  1. St. Joseph, LA 26 mi (41 km)
  2. near Jonesville, LA 32 mi (51 km)
  3. Winnsboro, LA 41 mi (66 km)
  4. Jena, LA 47 mi (75 km)
  5. near Brookhaven, MS 52 mi (84 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 31.5889, -91.3408.