U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00003816 · Kentucky

Frost Dates for Paducah, KY

NOAA weather station Paducah (USW00003816), Kentucky · elevation 392 ft (120 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 21only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 550% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2850% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season206 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Paducah, KYSpring: a frost after March 19 in 9 years out of 10, after April 5 in half of the years, after April 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 15 in 1 year out of 10, before October 28 in half of the years, before November 10 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 206 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 5First frost ~Oct 28Frost season at Paducah, KYSpring: a frost after March 19 in 9 years out of 10, after April 5 in half of the years, after April 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 15 in 1 year out of 10, before October 28 in half of the years, before November 10 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 206 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 5First frost ~Oct 28
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 21October 15
50% (typical)April 5October 28
90% (likely)March 19November 10
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
206 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 24
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 7

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 4 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 28. Frost-free season 207 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Paducah: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 21, 20% April 15, 30% April 11, 40% April 8, 50% April 5, 60% April 1, 70% March 30, 80% March 25, 90% March 19. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 2, 2022 March 20, 2023 March 29, 2024 March 28, 2025 March 21, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 21Apr 5Mar 192021: April 22022: March 202023: March 292024: March 282025: March 212026: March 17Fall at Paducah: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 15, 20% October 20, 30% October 23, 40% October 25, 50% October 28, 60% October 30, 70% November 1, 80% November 5, 90% November 10. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 30, 2024 November 26, 2025 November 9.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Oct 15Oct 28Nov 102021: November 32022: October 182023: October 302024: November 262025: November 9
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 2November 3
2022March 20October 18
2023March 29October 30
2024March 28November 26
2025March 21November 9
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

Paducah’s 32°F 50% dates are 206 days apart, framing the window in which most tender crops can be grown. The spring 50% date, April 5, carries a 50% chance of a frost later than this date, while the fall 50% date, October 28, carries a 50% chance of a frost earlier than this date.

For a cautious planting plan, gardeners should wait until the April 21 date, which has only a 10% chance of a later frost, before setting out tender crops, and aim to finish harvest by October 15, which has only a 10% chance that a frost has already arrived. The March 19 spring date and the November 10 fall date each carry a 90% chance of frost and are considered gambles.

Hard-frost thresholds are lower; the 50% hard-frost dates are March 24 in spring and November 7 in fall, and a hard frost can damage plants that survive a light frost, making it a more serious risk.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 21" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 15" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Paducah, KYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Metropolis, IL — 8 mi; 2 — Smithland Lock and Dam, IL — 20 mi; 3 — Rosiclare, IL — 34 mi; 4 — Murray, KY — 41 mi; 5 — Cape Girardeau, MO — 45 mi.KYMOILTN25 mi · 40 km1. near Metropolis, IL — 8 mi12. Smithland Lock and Dam, IL — 20 mi23. Rosiclare, IL — 34 mi34. Murray, KY — 41 mi45. Cape Girardeau, MO — 45 mi5
  1. near Metropolis, IL 8 mi (12 km)
  2. Smithland Lock and Dam, IL 20 mi (32 km)
  3. Rosiclare, IL 34 mi (55 km)
  4. Murray, KY 41 mi (65 km)
  5. Cape Girardeau, MO 45 mi (73 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 37.0683, -88.7719.