U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00417074 · Texas

Frost Dates for Plains, TX

NOAA weather station Plains (USC00417074), Texas · elevation 3675 ft (1120 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 27only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season200 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Plains, TXSpring: a frost after March 26 in 9 years out of 10, after April 11 in half of the years, after April 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 17 in 1 year out of 10, before November 1 in half of the years, before November 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 200 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 11First frost ~Nov 1Frost season at Plains, TXSpring: a frost after March 26 in 9 years out of 10, after April 11 in half of the years, after April 27 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 17 in 1 year out of 10, before November 1 in half of the years, before November 11 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 200 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 11First frost ~Nov 1
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 27October 17
50% (typical)April 11November 1
90% (likely)March 26November 11
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
200 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 31
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 7

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 12 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 1. Frost-free season 200 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Plains: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 27, 20% April 22, 30% April 18, 40% April 14, 50% April 11, 60% April 9, 70% April 5, 80% April 1, 90% March 26. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 March 31, 2023 April 16, 2024 March 29, 2025 April 6, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 27Apr 11Mar 262021: April 222022: March 312023: April 162024: March 292025: April 62026: March 18Fall at Plains: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 17, 20% October 21, 30% October 25, 40% October 28, 50% November 1, 60% November 2, 70% November 4, 80% November 7, 90% November 11. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 November 12, 2023 October 29, 2024 November 20, 2025 October 29.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 17Nov 1Nov 112021: November 42022: November 122023: October 292024: November 202025: October 29
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 4
2022March 31November 12
2023April 16October 29
2024March 29November 20
2025April 6October 29
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

April 27 is the cautious light-frost date for Plains, offering only a ten percent chance that a frost will arrive later and giving gardeners a reliable point to set out tender crops. The earlier April 11 mark is the fifty-percent date, meaning a fifty percent chance of a frost occurring after that day, while March 26 carries a ninety percent chance and would be a gamble for tender seedings.

In autumn the cautious date is October 17, when there is only a ten percent chance that a frost has already arrived, allowing growers to finish harvesting tender crops with minimal risk. The fifty-percent date of November 1 marks even odds for a frost arriving earlier, and November 11 reflects a ninety percent chance that a frost will already be present. The median hard-frost dates are March 31 in spring and November 7 in fall; a hard frost at 28 °F can injure or kill plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F, so these dates are especially relevant for protecting sensitive vegetation.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 27" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 17" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Plains, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Brownfield, TX — 32 mi; 2 — Levelland, TX — 36 mi; 3 — Morton, TX — 37 mi; 4 — Littlefield, TX — 57 mi; 5 — Lamesa, TX — 60 mi.TXNM25 mi · 40 km1. near Brownfield, TX — 32 mi12. Levelland, TX — 36 mi23. Morton, TX — 37 mi34. Littlefield, TX — 57 mi45. Lamesa, TX — 60 mi5
  1. near Brownfield, TX 32 mi (52 km)
  2. Levelland, TX 36 mi (58 km)
  3. Morton, TX 37 mi (59 km)
  4. Littlefield, TX 57 mi (92 km)
  5. Lamesa, TX 60 mi (97 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 33.1869, -102.8281.