U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00417079 · Texas

Frost Dates for Plainview, TX

NOAA weather station Plainview (USC00417079), Texas · elevation 3370 ft (1027 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 23only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season209 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Plainview, TXSpring: a frost after March 19 in 9 years out of 10, after April 6 in half of the years, after April 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 19 in 1 year out of 10, before November 2 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 209 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 6First frost ~Nov 2Frost season at Plainview, TXSpring: a frost after March 19 in 9 years out of 10, after April 6 in half of the years, after April 23 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 19 in 1 year out of 10, before November 2 in half of the years, before November 16 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 209 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 6First frost ~Nov 2
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 23October 19
50% (typical)April 6November 2
90% (likely)March 19November 16
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
209 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 25
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 12

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 9 (3 days later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 1 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 205 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Plainview: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 23, 20% April 18, 30% April 12, 40% April 9, 50% April 6, 60% April 3, 70% March 31, 80% March 26, 90% March 19. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 21, 2022 March 25, 2023 April 16, 2024 March 27, 2025 April 7, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Apr 23Apr 6Mar 192021: April 212022: March 252023: April 162024: March 272025: April 72026: March 18Fall at Plainview: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 19, 20% October 25, 30% October 28, 40% November 1, 50% November 2, 60% November 5, 70% November 7, 80% November 10, 90% November 16. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 November 5, 2023 October 29, 2024 November 20, 2025 October 29.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 19Nov 2Nov 162021: November 42022: November 52023: October 292024: November 202025: October 29
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 21November 4
2022March 25November 5
2023April 16October 29
2024March 27November 20
2025April 7October 29
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

The 209 days between the 50% dates in Plainview mark the interval where a light frost is equally likely to have happened or not. The 50% date for light frost in spring is April 6 and in fall is November 2; at each of those dates the probability of a frost is 50 %. The median hard-frost dates are March 25 in spring and November 12 in fall, indicating an even chance of a 28 °F event.

For a cautious spring planting plan, the 10 % chance date is April 23, the date gardeners use to set out tender crops, while the 90 % chance date, March 19, is a gamble. In fall, the cautious date to finish tender crops is October 19, and the gamble date is November 16. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that would survive a light frost at 32 °F, so it represents a higher risk.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 23" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 19" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Plainview, TXNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Tulia, TX — 25 mi; 2 — Floydada, TX — 25 mi; 3 — Hart, TX — 27 mi; 4 — Silverton, TX — 30 mi; 5 — Lubbock, TX — 38 mi.NM25 mi · 40 km1. Tulia, TX — 25 mi12. Floydada, TX — 25 mi23. Hart, TX — 27 mi34. Silverton, TX — 30 mi45. Lubbock, TX — 38 mi5
  1. Tulia, TX 25 mi (40 km)
  2. Floydada, TX 25 mi (41 km)
  3. Hart, TX 27 mi (43 km)
  4. Silverton, TX 30 mi (48 km)
  5. Lubbock, TX 38 mi (60 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.1892, -101.7022.