U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00317079 · North Carolina

Frost Dates near Raleigh, NC

NOAA weather station Raleigh State University (USC00317079), North Carolina · elevation 400 ft (122 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

Raleigh is the nearest town to the station (3.6 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 12only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 850% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season229 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Raleigh, NCSpring: a frost after March 8 in 9 years out of 10, after March 28 in half of the years, after April 12 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 28 in 1 year out of 10, before November 8 in half of the years, before November 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 229 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 28First frost ~Nov 8Frost season near Raleigh, NCSpring: a frost after March 8 in 9 years out of 10, after March 28 in half of the years, after April 12 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 28 in 1 year out of 10, before November 8 in half of the years, before November 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 229 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 28First frost ~Nov 8
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 27 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 12October 28
50% (typical)March 28November 8
90% (likely)March 8November 27
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
229 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 14
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 23

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 27 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 9 (1 day later). Frost-free season 228 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Raleigh: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 12, 20% April 7, 30% April 3, 40% April 1, 50% March 28, 60% March 24, 70% March 20, 80% March 16, 90% March 8. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 2, 2022 March 28, 2023 March 20, 2024 February 21.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 12Mar 28Mar 82021: April 22022: March 282023: March 202024: February 21Fall near Raleigh: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 28, 20% November 1, 30% November 4, 40% November 6, 50% November 8, 60% November 12, 70% November 16, 80% November 20, 90% November 27. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 16, 2022 November 18, 2023 November 2, 2025 November 11.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 28Nov 8Nov 272021: November 162022: November 182023: November 22025: November 11
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 2November 16
2022March 28November 18
2023March 20November 2
2024February 21incomplete record
2025incomplete recordNovember 11
2026incomplete recordseason not over yet

What these dates mean

October 28 marks the cautious fall date for finishing the harvest in the Raleigh area, when there is only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived. The 50 % dates are March 28 for spring and November 8 for fall; at each of these moments a gardener faces an even chance of a light frost occurring later (spring) or earlier (fall). For tender crops the conservative plan uses April 12 in spring, the date with a 10 % chance of frost later, and October 28 in fall, the date with a 10 % chance of frost earlier. The hard-frost 50 % dates are March 14 and November 23, and a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that survive a 32 °F light frost, making it the more critical temperature threshold.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 12" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 28" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Raleigh, NCNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NC — 8 mi; 2 — Chapel Hill, NC — 23 mi; 3 — Sanford, NC — 26 mi; 4 — Dunn, NC — 32 mi; 5 — Wilson, NC — 43 mi.NC25 mi · 40 km1. Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NC — 8 mi12. Chapel Hill, NC — 23 mi23. Sanford, NC — 26 mi34. Dunn, NC — 32 mi45. Wilson, NC — 43 mi5
  1. Raleigh (Raleigh-Durham Airport), NC 8 mi (14 km)
  2. Chapel Hill, NC 23 mi (37 km)
  3. Sanford, NC 26 mi (42 km)
  4. Dunn, NC 32 mi (52 km)
  5. Wilson, NC 43 mi (69 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.7908, -78.6989.