U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00407884 · Tennessee

Frost Dates for Rogersville, TN

NOAA weather station Rogersville 1 NE (USC00407884), Tennessee · elevation 1355 ft (413 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 3only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1450% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season192 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Rogersville, TNSpring: a frost after March 31 in 9 years out of 10, after April 14 in half of the years, after May 3 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 11 in 1 year out of 10, before October 24 in half of the years, before November 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 192 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 14First frost ~Oct 24Frost season at Rogersville, TNSpring: a frost after March 31 in 9 years out of 10, after April 14 in half of the years, after May 3 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 11 in 1 year out of 10, before October 24 in half of the years, before November 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 192 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 14First frost ~Oct 24
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 3October 11
50% (typical)April 14October 24
90% (likely)March 31November 4
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
192 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 2
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 14 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 26 (2 days later). Frost-free season 193 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Rogersville: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 3, 20% April 26, 30% April 21, 40% April 17, 50% April 14, 60% April 12, 70% April 8, 80% April 5, 90% March 31. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 20, 2023 April 24, 2025 April 13, 2026 March 29.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 3Apr 14Mar 312021: April 232022: April 202023: April 242025: April 132026: March 29Fall at Rogersville: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 11, 20% October 15, 30% October 19, 40% October 21, 50% October 24, 60% October 26, 70% October 29, 80% November 1, 90% November 4. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 18, 2024 October 17, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 11Oct 24Nov 42021: November 52022: October 182024: October 172025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23November 5
2022April 20October 18
2023April 24incomplete record
2024incomplete recordOctober 17
2025April 13November 10
2026March 29season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 3 is the cautious spring date for Rogersville, offering only a 10 % chance of a light frost later and allowing a gardener to set out tender crops with minimal risk comfortably.

The 50 % spring date, April 14, represents a 50 % chance of a light frost later than this date, and the 50 % fall date, October 24, represents a 50 % chance of a light frost earlier than this date. October 11 is the cautious fall date, with only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier, so a gardener can finish harvesting tender crops with confidence.

A hard frost at 28 °F, noted on April 2 in spring and November 1 in fall, can cause more severe damage to plants than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 3" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 11" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Rogersville, TNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Kingsport, TN — 26 mi; 2 — Big Stone Gap, VA — 32 mi; 3 — Tazewell, TN — 32 mi; 4 — Newport, TN — 32 mi; 5 — near Bristol, TN — 32 mi.TNVAKYNC25 mi · 40 km1. Kingsport, TN — 26 mi12. Big Stone Gap, VA — 32 mi23. Tazewell, TN — 32 mi34. Newport, TN — 32 mi45. near Bristol, TN — 32 mi5
  1. Kingsport, TN 26 mi (42 km)
  2. Big Stone Gap, VA 32 mi (52 km)
  3. Tazewell, TN 32 mi (52 km)
  4. Newport, TN 32 mi (52 km)
  5. near Bristol, TN 32 mi (52 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.4161, -82.9839.