U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00355055 · Oregon

Frost Dates near Shady Cove, OR

NOAA weather station Lost Creek Dam (USC00355055), Oregon · elevation 1580 ft (482 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

Shady Cove is the nearest town to the station (8.2 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 19only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 2950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season171 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Shady Cove, ORSpring: a frost after April 7 in 9 years out of 10, after April 29 in half of the years, after May 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 17 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 171 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 29First frost ~Oct 17Frost season near Shady Cove, ORSpring: a frost after April 7 in 9 years out of 10, after April 29 in half of the years, after May 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 1 in 1 year out of 10, before October 17 in half of the years, before November 1 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 171 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 29First frost ~Oct 17
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 25 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 19October 1
50% (typical)April 29October 17
90% (likely)April 7November 1
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
171 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 31
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 26 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 18 (1 day later). Frost-free season 175 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Shady Cove: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 19, 20% May 11, 30% May 5, 40% May 1, 50% April 29, 60% April 25, 70% April 21, 80% April 15, 90% April 7. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 9, 2022 May 21, 2023 April 21, 2024 May 10, 2025 April 14, 2026 April 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1Jun 1May 19Apr 29Apr 72021: May 92022: May 212023: April 212024: May 102025: April 142026: April 18Fall near Shady Cove: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 1, 20% October 6, 30% October 10, 40% October 13, 50% October 17, 60% October 20, 70% October 23, 80% October 28, 90% November 1. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 12, 2022 October 27, 2023 October 27, 2024 October 18, 2025 November 21.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 1Oct 17Nov 12021: October 122022: October 272023: October 272024: October 182025: November 21
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 9October 12
2022May 21October 27
2023April 21October 27
2024May 10October 18
2025April 14November 21
2026April 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 19 is the cautious spring date for the Shady Cove area, and it allows a gardener to set out tender crops when the chance of a later light frost is only 10%. The median spring light-frost date is April 29; at that point there is a 50% chance of a frost later than this date. The 90% spring date of April 7 is a gamble for tender crops.

For the autumn season, October 1 is the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops because the chance of an earlier light frost is just 10%. The median fall light-frost date is October 17, when there is a 50% chance of a frost earlier than this date, and the 90% date of November 1 is a gamble. The 50% hard-frost dates are March 31 in spring and November 1 in fall; hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F, so those dates mark the period of greatest cold risk. The two 32 °F 50% dates—April 29 and October 17—are 171 days apart.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 19" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 1" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Shady Cove, ORNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Prospect, OR — 9 mi; 2 — near Medford, OR — 22 mi; 3 — Sexton Summit, OR — 35 mi; 4 — Riddle, OR — 40 mi; 5 — Toketee Falls, OR — 43 mi.OR25 mi · 40 km1. Prospect, OR — 9 mi12. near Medford, OR — 22 mi23. Sexton Summit, OR — 35 mi34. Riddle, OR — 40 mi45. Toketee Falls, OR — 43 mi5
  1. Prospect, OR 9 mi (15 km)
  2. near Medford, OR 22 mi (36 km)
  3. Sexton Summit, OR 35 mi (57 km)
  4. Riddle, OR 40 mi (64 km)
  5. Toketee Falls, OR 43 mi (69 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.6722, -122.675.