U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00435416 · Vermont

Frost Dates near Stowe, VT

NOAA weather station Mount Mansfield (USC00435416), Vermont · elevation 3950 ft (1204 m) · hardiness zone 4b*

Stowe is the nearest town to the station (7.6 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter June 8only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 2350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostSeptember 3050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season130 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone4bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Stowe, VTSpring: a frost after May 5 in 9 years out of 10, after May 23 in half of the years, after June 8 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 16 in 1 year out of 10, before September 30 in half of the years, before October 12 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 130 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 23First frost ~Sep 30Frost season near Stowe, VTSpring: a frost after May 5 in 9 years out of 10, after May 23 in half of the years, after June 8 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 16 in 1 year out of 10, before September 30 in half of the years, before October 12 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 130 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 23First frost ~Sep 30
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.Today

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)June 8September 16
50% (typical)May 23September 30
90% (likely)May 5October 12
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
130 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
May 11
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 9

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 21 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 4 (4 days later). Frost-free season 135 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Stowe: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% June 8, 20% June 2, 30% May 29, 40% May 26, 50% May 23, 60% May 19, 70% May 15, 80% May 11, 90% May 5. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 28, 2022 May 18, 2026 May 30.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1Jun 8May 23May 52021: May 282022: May 182026: May 30Fall near Stowe: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 16, 20% September 21, 30% September 25, 40% September 28, 50% September 30, 60% October 2, 70% October 4, 80% October 7, 90% October 12. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 19, 2022 September 23.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Sep 16Sep 30Oct 122021: October 192022: September 23
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 28October 19
2022May 18September 23
2023incomplete recordincomplete record
2024no dataincomplete record
2025incomplete recordincomplete record
2026May 30season not over yet

What these dates mean

June 8 is the cautious spring date for the Stowe area, allowing a gardener to set out tender crops with only a 10 percent chance that a light frost will occur later. Planting after that day reduces the risk of frost damage compared with the gamble of an earlier date such as May 5, which carries a 90 percent chance of frost.

The 50 percent date is May 23, indicating a 50 percent chance of a light frost later than this date, and the 50 percent date is September 30, indicating a 50 percent chance of a light frost earlier than this date. September 16 is the cautious fall date, giving a 10 percent chance that a light frost will have arrived earlier, so finishing tender-crop harvests by then keeps risk low. The hard-frost median dates are May 11 and October 9, and hard frost at 28 °F can injure plants more severely than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after June 8" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 16" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Stowe, VTNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Burlington, VT — 17 mi; 2 — South Hero, VT — 25 mi; 3 — near Barre, VT — 25 mi; 4 — Peru, NY — 37 mi; 5 — Saint Johnsbury, VT — 40 mi.VTNYNH25 mi · 40 km1. Burlington, VT — 17 mi12. South Hero, VT — 25 mi23. near Barre, VT — 25 mi34. Peru, NY — 37 mi45. Saint Johnsbury, VT — 40 mi5
  1. Burlington, VT 17 mi (27 km)
  2. South Hero, VT 25 mi (40 km)
  3. near Barre, VT 25 mi (40 km)
  4. Peru, NY 37 mi (60 km)
  5. Saint Johnsbury, VT 40 mi (64 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 4b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 44.5247, -72.8153.