U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00093862 · Mississippi

Frost Dates for Tupelo, MS

NOAA weather station Tupelo Regional Airport (USW00093862), Mississippi · elevation 361 ft (110 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 6only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 1050% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season235 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Tupelo, MSSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 21 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 29 in 1 year out of 10, before November 10 in half of the years, before November 28 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 235 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 21First frost ~Nov 10Frost season at Tupelo, MSSpring: a frost after February 28 in 9 years out of 10, after March 21 in half of the years, after April 6 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 29 in 1 year out of 10, before November 10 in half of the years, before November 28 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 235 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 21First frost ~Nov 10
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 6October 29
50% (typical)March 21November 10
90% (likely)February 28November 28
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
235 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 5
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 23

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 19 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 8 (2 days earlier). Frost-free season 237 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Tupelo: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 6, 20% April 2, 30% March 30, 40% March 26, 50% March 21, 60% March 17, 70% March 13, 80% March 8, 90% February 28. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 2, 2022 March 13, 2023 March 20, 2024 March 19, 2025 March 21, 2026 March 17.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 6Mar 21Feb 282021: April 22022: March 132023: March 202024: March 192025: March 212026: March 17Fall at Tupelo: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 29, 20% November 1, 30% November 4, 40% November 7, 50% November 10, 60% November 14, 70% November 17, 80% November 22, 90% November 28. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 14, 2022 November 13, 2023 November 1, 2024 November 23, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 29Nov 10Nov 282021: November 142022: November 132023: November 12024: November 232025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 2November 14
2022March 13November 13
2023March 20November 1
2024March 19November 23
2025March 21November 10
2026March 17season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 29 marks the cautious fall date in Tupelo for finishing the harvest, with only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier. In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is April 6, when the chance of a later frost drops to 10 %; planting on February 28 carries a 90 % chance of a frost and is a gamble.

The 50 % light-frost date in spring is March 21, the point at which the odds of a frost are even, and the 50 % light-frost date in fall is November 10, also an even-odds day. The 50 % hard-frost dates are March 5 in spring and November 23 in fall, indicating the median moment when temperatures reach 28 °F.

A hard frost at 28 °F matters more than a light frost at 32 °F because the colder temperature can cause far more severe damage to tender plant tissue.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 6" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 29" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Tupelo, MSNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Verona, MS — 7 mi; 2 — Pontotoc, MS — 16 mi; 3 — Corinth, MS — 44 mi; 4 — University, MS — 44 mi; 5 — Hamilton, AL — 46 mi.MSALTN25 mi · 40 km1. Verona, MS — 7 mi12. Pontotoc, MS — 16 mi23. Corinth, MS — 44 mi34. University, MS — 44 mi45. Hamilton, AL — 46 mi5
  1. Verona, MS 7 mi (12 km)
  2. Pontotoc, MS 16 mi (25 km)
  3. Corinth, MS 44 mi (70 km)
  4. University, MS 44 mi (71 km)
  5. Hamilton, AL 46 mi (74 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.2622, -88.7714.