U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00208417 · Michigan

Frost Dates for Vanderbilt, MI

NOAA weather station Vanderbilt 11 ENE (USC00208417), Michigan · elevation 905 ft (276 m) · hardiness zone 4b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter June 29only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostJune 750% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostSeptember 1450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season95 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone4bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Vanderbilt, MISpring: a frost after May 23 in 9 years out of 10, after June 7 in half of the years, after June 29 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before August 24 in 1 year out of 10, before September 14 in half of the years, before September 30 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 95 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Jun 7First frost ~Sep 14Frost season at Vanderbilt, MISpring: a frost after May 23 in 9 years out of 10, after June 7 in half of the years, after June 29 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before August 24 in 1 year out of 10, before September 14 in half of the years, before September 30 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 95 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Jun 7First frost ~Sep 14
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)June 29August 24
50% (typical)June 7September 14
90% (likely)May 23September 30
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
95 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
May 24
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
September 29

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost June 1 (6 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost September 17 (3 days later). Frost-free season 104 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Vanderbilt: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% June 29, 20% June 22, 30% June 16, 40% June 11, 50% June 7, 60% June 4, 70% June 1, 80% May 29, 90% May 23. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2022 June 4, 2023 May 27, 2024 June 11, 2025 June 2, 2026 May 31.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Jun 1Jul 1Jun 29Jun 7May 232022: June 42023: May 272024: June 112025: June 22026: May 31Fall at Vanderbilt: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% August 24, 20% September 1, 30% September 5, 40% September 10, 50% September 14, 60% September 17, 70% September 20, 80% September 24, 90% September 30. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 18, 2022 September 23, 2023 September 14, 2024 October 2, 2025 August 27.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Sep 1Oct 1Aug 24Sep 14Sep 302021: October 182022: September 232023: September 142024: October 22025: August 27
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021incomplete recordOctober 18
2022June 4September 23
2023May 27September 14
2024June 11October 2
2025June 2August 27
2026May 31season not over yet

What these dates mean

The span between the 32 °F 50% dates in Vanderbilt is 95 days, marking the core interval in which tender crops can be grown with balanced frost risk. The 50% date in spring, June 7, indicates an even chance that a light frost could occur later, while the 50% date in fall, September 14, represents an even chance of an earlier light frost. Gardeners who prefer a cautious approach should aim to set out tender plants after the June 29 date, which carries only a 10 % chance of a later light frost, and should aim to finish harvesting before the August 24 date, which carries only a 10 % chance of an earlier light frost.

The median hard-frost dates are May 24 and September 29, and a 28 °F event can damage plants more severely than a 32 °F light frost.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after June 29" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before August 24" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Vanderbilt, MINumbered nearest stations: 1 — Gaylord, MI — 16 mi; 2 — Onaway, MI — 20 mi; 3 — near Boyne City, MI — 23 mi; 4 — Petoskey, MI — 30 mi; 5 — Pellston, MI — 32 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Gaylord, MI — 16 mi12. Onaway, MI — 20 mi23. near Boyne City, MI — 23 mi34. Petoskey, MI — 30 mi45. Pellston, MI — 32 mi5
  1. Gaylord, MI 16 mi (26 km)
  2. Onaway, MI 20 mi (32 km)
  3. near Boyne City, MI 23 mi (37 km)
  4. Petoskey, MI 30 mi (48 km)
  5. Pellston, MI 32 mi (52 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 4b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 45.1703, -84.4397.