U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00030130 · Arkansas

Frost Dates for Alum Fork, AR

NOAA weather station Alum Fork (USC00030130), Arkansas · elevation 698 ft (213 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 12only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMarch 2850% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 850% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season226 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Alum Fork, ARSpring: a frost after March 9 in 9 years out of 10, after March 28 in half of the years, after April 12 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 26 in 1 year out of 10, before November 8 in half of the years, before November 25 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 226 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Mar 28First frost ~Nov 8Frost season at Alum Fork, ARSpring: a frost after March 9 in 9 years out of 10, after March 28 in half of the years, after April 12 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 26 in 1 year out of 10, before November 8 in half of the years, before November 25 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 226 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Mar 28First frost ~Nov 8
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 12October 26
50% (typical)March 28November 8
90% (likely)March 9November 25
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
226 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 15
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 19

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost March 26 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 7 (1 day earlier). Frost-free season 229 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Alum Fork: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 12, 20% April 7, 30% April 4, 40% April 1, 50% March 28, 60% March 25, 70% March 20, 80% March 15, 90% March 9. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2024 March 20, 2025 March 22, 2026 March 18.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Mar 1Apr 1Apr 12Mar 28Mar 92021: April 222024: March 202025: March 222026: March 18Fall at Alum Fork: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 26, 20% October 31, 30% November 2, 40% November 5, 50% November 8, 60% November 11, 70% November 15, 80% November 19, 90% November 25. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 19, 2023 October 31, 2024 November 21, 2025 November 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 26Nov 8Nov 252021: November 52022: October 192023: October 312024: November 212025: November 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 5
2022incomplete recordOctober 19
2023incomplete recordOctober 31
2024March 20November 21
2025March 22November 10
2026March 18season not over yet

What these dates mean

October 26 is the cautious fall date for finishing the harvest of tender crops in Alum Fork, because only a 10 % chance of a light frost has occurred by then. In spring, gardeners who follow a cautious plan wait until April 12, the 10 % chance date, before setting out tender crops, while planting on March 9 carries a 90 % chance of a frost and is a gamble.

The 50% date is March 28 for light frost, indicating an even odds that a light frost will come later, and the 50% date is November 8 for light frost, indicating an even odds that a light frost will have arrived earlier. The hard-frost 50% dates are March 15 and November 19; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plant tissue more severely than a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 12" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 26" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Alum Fork, ARNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Ola, AR — 21 mi; 2 — Morrilton, AR — 25 mi; 3 — Conway, AR — 29 mi; 4 — Little Rock, AR — 33 mi; 5 — Little Rock (Adams Field), AR — 35 mi.AR25 mi · 40 km1. near Ola, AR — 21 mi12. Morrilton, AR — 25 mi23. Conway, AR — 29 mi34. Little Rock, AR — 33 mi45. Little Rock (Adams Field), AR — 35 mi5
  1. near Ola, AR 21 mi (34 km)
  2. Morrilton, AR 25 mi (41 km)
  3. Conway, AR 29 mi (47 km)
  4. Little Rock, AR 33 mi (53 km)
  5. Little Rock (Adams Field), AR 35 mi (56 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 34.7961, -92.8417.